Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 16

Date: 30 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Parque Capurro (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	Disney+


	Atletico Fenix Montevideo		Miramar Misiones

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.25	4.75
	1.62	3.35	4.7
	1.68	3.52	5.08
	1.69	3.57	5.07	Watch
	1.65	3.45	5
	1.7	3.57	4.99
	1.64	3.4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.84)	3.44 ↑ (3.38)	4.88 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
54.8%

Draw
26.5%

Miramar Misiones
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.4%

27.5%

22.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

24.2%

25.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

Miramar Misiones has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Atletico Fenix Montevideo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Miramar Misiones than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Miramar Misiones could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Miramar Misiones Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+3', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 6 and 14).

In recent matches, Fenix has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Miramar Misiones's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Miramar Misiones may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Fenix is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fenix won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 0.8:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fenix won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1. (average 1:0.5).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Fenix	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
12	Miramar	21	6	7	8	23:26	-3	25

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguay Copa
27.08.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Liverpool Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Segunda Division
22.08.26	Tacuarembó - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:2 ✺
16.08.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Plaza Colonia	1:4 ✺
08.08.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - La Luz	0:0 ✺
02.08.26	Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LWLTT
- Miramar Misiones
Uruguayan Segunda Division
21.08.26	Miramar Misiones - Rentistas	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	River Plate Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
09.08.26	Miramar Misiones - Tacuarembó	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Plaza Colonia - Miramar Misiones	3:0 ✺
26.07.26	Miramar Misiones - La Luz	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
25.05.26	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1
Uruguayan Primera Division
22.09.24	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	0:0
08.03.24	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:1
22.03.14	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Miramar Misiones	2:1
27.10.13	Miramar Misiones - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:0

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