Match Info

Segunda Division - Round 12

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Charrúa (Montevideo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Antel TV, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerrito		Atletico Fenix Montevideo

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.00	2.50
	2.42	2.98	2.72
	2.43	3.19	2.95
	2.49	3.22	2.79	Watch
	2.35	3.15	2.8
	2.48	3.23	2.81	Watch
	2.42	2.95	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (2.68)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	2.75 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerrito
37.4%

Draw
29.4%

Atletico Fenix Montevideo
33.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.7%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.3%

30%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerrito has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerrito than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cerrito that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atletico Fenix Montevideo than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atletico Fenix Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Fenix (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenix (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
73', 1 - 1, ⚽,
79', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 6).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Fenix may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Cerrito won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerrito won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Standings

Main

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Fenix	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29
8	Cerrito	21	7	8	6	27:24	3	29

Last Results with these Odds

Cerrito - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 33.82%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CS Cerrito
Uruguayan Segunda Division
18.07.26	Rentistas - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
12.07.26	Cerrito - Miramar Misiones	1:0 ✺
05.07.26	Tacuarembó - Cerrito	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Cerrito - Plaza Colonia	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	La Luz - Cerrito	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 TWTWL
- Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Uruguayan Segunda Division
26.07.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Atenas de San Carlos	1:0 ✺
13.07.26	Paysandú - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1:0 ✺
05.07.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Huracán Paso de la Arena	2:0 ✺
27.06.26	Uruguay Montevideo - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3:2 ✺
20.06.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Oriental de La Paz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Segunda Division
12.04.26	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	4:1
22.09.25	Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:2
29.06.25	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	3:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
15.09.22	Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0:2
10.04.22	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	2:0
17.10.21	Cerrito - Atletico Fenix Montevideo	2:4
18.06.21	Atletico Fenix Montevideo - Cerrito	1:3

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