Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/16-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Metropolitano Stadium (Madrid)

Referee: Turpin C. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Atlético Madrid		Club Brugge

	1	X	2
	1.38	5.25	7
	1.4	5.5	6.5
	1.39	5.05	8.5
	1.37	5.81	8.19
	1.41	5.3	7.4
	1.4	4.8	7
	1.42	5.39	7.18
	1.35	5.33	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.39)	5.3 ↓ (5.53)	7.41 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Madrid
69%

Draw
18.1%

Club Brugge
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69%

17.3%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

76.9%

19.3%

12.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Atlético Madrid have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Club Brugge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Madrid, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club Brugge than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	11.7%	8.3%

Atlético Madrid - Club Brugge Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1 - Brugge (2.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Atlético (2.00) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atlético (1.13) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

DNB - Atlético (1.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (48 of 59 users predict this - 81.36%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.42% – 91.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (15 of 16 users predict this - 93.75%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 18 - 81.8%). Brugge (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 5. Cardoso J. 6. Koke (C) 10. Baena A. 9. Sorloth A. 19. Alvarez J.	22. Mignolet S. (G) 64. Sabbe K. 4. Ordonez J. 44. Mechele B. 65. Seys J. 25. Stankovic A. 9. Forbs C. 10. Vetlesen H. 20. Vanaken H. (C) 8. Tzolis C. 7. Tresoldi N.
Substitutes
11. Almada T. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 2. Gimenez J. M. 7. Griezmann A. 15. Lenglet C. 24. Le Normand R. 22. Lookman A. 4. Mendoza R. 16. Molina N. 1. Musso J. (G) 21. Vargas O.	84. Campbell S. 71. De Corte A. (G) 67. Diakhon M. 29. Jackers N. (G) 80. Lemarechal F. 14. Meijer B. 19. Nilsson G. 24. Osuji V. 11. Sandra C. 41. Siquet H. 58. Spileers J. 17. Vermant R.
Coaches
Simeone D.	Leko I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
23', 1 - 0, Sorloth A. ⚽, Oblak J. (A),
36', 1 - 1, Ordonez J. ⚽, Mechele B. (A),
40', Ordonez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
48', 2 - 1, Cardoso J. ⚽,
58', Alvarez J. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
65', Tresoldi N. ↓, Vermant R. ↑,
65', Vetlesen H. ↓, Diakhon M. ↑,
70', Koke ↓, Molina N. ↑,
70', Baena A. ↓, Lookman A. ↑,
76', 3 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Lookman A. (A),
82', Tzolis C. ↓, Nilsson G. ↑,
82', Seys J. ↓, Lemarechal F. ↑,
83', Simeone G. ↓, Gimenez J. M. ↑,
83', Cardoso J. ↓, Mendoza R. ↑,
85', Llorente M. 🟨,
85', Vermant R. 🟨,
87', 4 - 1, Sorloth A. ⚽, Ruggeri M. (A),
88', Mechele B. ↓, Meijer B. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 3-3. Second leg.

Recent performances by Atlético have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Brugge is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Atlético: Barrios P. (Muscle Injury) Gonzalez N. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Brugge: Onyedika R. (Yellow Cards) Reis L. (Inactive) van den Heuvel D. (Leg Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Atl. Madrid: 1.83%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2:3	-1	0
26	Atl. Madrid	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
21.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Espanyol	4:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	3:3 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
15.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Betis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WTLWL
- Club Brugge
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
21.02.26	Club Brugge - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	3:3 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
15.02.26	Cercle Brugge - Club Brugge	1:2 ✺
08.02.26	Club Brugge - Standard Liège	3:0 ✺
01.02.26	Saint-Gilloise - Club Brugge	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
18.02.26	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	3:3
12.10.22	Atlético Madrid - Club Brugge	0:0
04.10.22	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	2:0
11.12.18	Club Brugge - Atlético Madrid	0:0
03.10.18	Atlético Madrid - Club Brugge	3:1

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