Match Info

LaLiga - Round 24

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Bolivia	DAZN, Tigo Sports 1, Tigo Sports App
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	DirecTV Sports
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport
Ecuador	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, beIN Sports MAX 6
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Sport 1
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 3
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Paraguay	DAZN
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 3
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Arena Premium 5
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Suriname	QN Sports, SCCN
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, DAZN Switzerland
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Tanzania	ZBC 2 Tanzania
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	DAZN, DirecTV Sports
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	DAZN, DirecTV Sports, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 15
World	Daystar Pacific


	Rayo Vallecano		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.6	1.8	Watch
	4.33	3.5	1.85
	4.7	3.55	1.78	Watch
	4.84	3.7	1.81
	4.49	3.64	1.88
	4.5	3.4	1.75
	4.9	3.69	1.8	Watch
	4.75	3.6	1.77
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.63 ↓ (4.67)	3.59 ↑ (3.5)	1.81 ↑ (1.76)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
20.6%

Draw
26.6%

Atlético Madrid
52.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

26.7%

53.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

25.9%

54.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5%	5%	90%

Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Rayo Vallecano (4.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Atlético (1.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - Atlético (1.03) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Atlético Madrid will win (71 of 79 users predict this - 89.87%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.22% – 96.52%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (27 of 28 users predict this - 96.43%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 31 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 2 - 6.5%). Atlético (votes: 29 - 93.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 23. Valentin O. (C) 15. Gumbau G. 12. Akhomach I. 7. Palazon I. 21. Perez F. 19. de Frutos J.	13. Oblak J. (C) 16. Molina N. 2. Gimenez J. M. 15. Lenglet C. 3. Ruggeri M. 10. Baena A. 4. Mendoza R. 5. Cardoso J. 23. Gonzalez N. 11. Almada T. 9. Sorloth A.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 4. Diaz P. 18. Garcia A. 30. Gil J. (G) 17. Lopez U. 5. Luiz Felipe 16. Mumin A. 11. Nteka R. 8. Trejo O. 33. Vertrouwd J.	19. Alvarez J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 7. Griezmann A. 17. Hancko D. 6. Koke 24. Le Normand R. 14. Llorente M. 22. Lookman A. 1. Musso J. (G) 18. Pubill M. 20. Simeone G. 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Perez I.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
29', Cardoso J. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Perez F. ⚽, Ratiu A. (A),
45', 2 - 0, Valentin O. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Mendoza R. 🟨,
56', Mendoza R. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
56', Ruggeri M. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
56', Baena A. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
63', Cardoso J. ↓, Llorente M. ↑,
63', Lenglet C. ↓, Lookman A. ↑,
64', Palazon I. ↓, Diaz P. ↑,
64', de Frutos J. ↓, Vertrouwd J. ↑,
64', Perez F. ↓, Garcia A. ↑,
70', Llorente M. 🟨,
74', Akhomach I. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
76', 3 - 0, Mendy N. ⚽, Garcia A. (A),
83', Gumbau G. ↓, Lopez U. ↑,
90+2', Garcia A. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 0.

Rayo Vallecano has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Atlético has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atlético may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Atlético is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 12:44. (average 0.6:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.7:2).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Atl. Madrid: 2.96% Rayo Vallecano: 0.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Madrid	8	6	1	1	18:8	10	19
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	1:3 ✺
18.01.26	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
14.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
11.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish Copa del Rey
12.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Barcelona	4:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
08.02.26	Atlético Madrid - Betis	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.02.26	Betis - Atlético Madrid	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
31.01.26	Levante - Atlético Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Bodø Glimt	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
24.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:2
24.04.25	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	3:0
22.09.24	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:1
31.01.24	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
28.08.23	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	0:7
09.04.23	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	1:2
18.10.22	Atlético Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	1:1

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