Match Info

BRAZIL: Paulista A3 - Round 11

Date: 26 February 2025, Wednesday


	Atlético Monte Azul		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.3	4.4
	1.7	3.34	4.55
	1.71	3.43	4.72	Watch
	1.64	3.44	5.03
	1.76	3.3	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↑ (1.55)	3.36 ↑ (3.3)	4.62 ↓ (6.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Monte Azul
53.2%

Draw
27.1%

Comercial SP
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.4%

27.4%

14.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.6%

26.4%

13.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Monte Azul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Atlético Monte Azul's form might have worsened.

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Comercial SP's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Monte Azul than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Atlético Monte Azul, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Comercial SP, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 1 - 0, Pedoca ⚽,

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will play in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista A3 (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista A4).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Monte Azul won 2.

Monte Azul is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Comercial SP is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Comercial SP could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Monte Azul is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Monte Azul won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6:5 (average 1:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Monte Azul won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 1.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Monte Azul
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
23.02.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Marília	3:1 ✺
19.02.25	Catanduva - Atlético Monte Azul	1:1 ✺
16.02.25	Atlético Monte Azul - Bandeirante	2:1 ✺
08.02.25	EC São Bernardo - Atlético Monte Azul	1:0 ✺
05.02.25	União Suzano - Atlético Monte Azul	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTWLW
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A3
22.02.25	Comercial SP - Francana	1:1 ✺
19.02.25	Sertãozinho - Comercial SP	1:1 ✺
15.02.25	Comercial SP - Itapirense	1:2 ✺
08.02.25	Desportivo Brasil - Comercial SP	2:0 ✺
05.02.25	Comercial SP - Catanduva	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
14.09.24	Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP	1:0
07.09.24	Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul	0:0
17.08.24	Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP	2:1
13.07.24	Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul	2:1
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
16.03.24	Comercial SP - Atlético Monte Azul	1:1
15.02.23	Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP	1:1

Atlético Monte Azul - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide