Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 15

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Monumental (Rafaela)


	Atlético de Rafaela		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.75	3.5	Watch
	2.3	2.7	3.4
	2.35	2.72	3.3	Watch
	2.46	2.8	3.48
	2.41	2.69	3.53	Watch
	2.38	2.63	3.4
	2.33	2.67	3.38	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.62)	2.71 ↑ (2.63)	3.43 ↑ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético de Rafaela
39%

Draw
34%

Ferrocarril Midland
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

35.5%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

36.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético de Rafaela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Ferrocarril Midland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético de Rafaela than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	60%	40%

Atlético de Rafaela - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Ferrocarril will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bergia M. (G) 2. Fernandez G. 6. Ponce F. 8. Flores L. 4. Solveyra A. 3. Wuattier E. 7. Moreno M. 5. Capurro J. 11. Cainelli N. 10. Protti I. 9. Albertengo L.	1. Leguiza M. (G) 2. Cepeda G. 3. Casarico P. 6. Gonzalez F. 4. Diaz Laharque L. 7. Rogoski M. 11. Campana A. I. 8. Camano J. 5. Violini N. (C) 10. Roseti M. 9. Perales J.
Substitutes
16. Fernandez M. 20. Leineker C. 12. Martinez R. (G) 17. Nouet F. 19. Pardo M. 15. Pepino E. 18. Quiroga M. 13. Ramirez R. 14. Ramos N.	18. Cao R. 14. Castorani P. 12. Escobar L. (G) 19. Flores M. 16. Frattini M. 17. Gargiulo V. 13. Gigli L. 15. Penepil M. 20. Vega J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Protti I. ↓, Pardo M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
56', 1 - 0, Albertengo L. ⚽, Solveyra A. (A),
58', Albertengo L. ↓, Fernandez M. ↑,
58', Cainelli N. ↓, Quiroga M. ↑,
59', Camano J. ↓, Cao R. ↑,
59', Campana A. I. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
62', Flores L. 🟨,
70', Ponce F. 🟥,
74', Pardo M. ↓, Ramos N. ↑,
77', Violini N. ↓, Gargiulo V. ↑,
77', Casarico P. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
83', Bergia M. 🟨,
84', Gargiulo V. 🟨,
87', Diaz Laharque L. ↓, Frattini M. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Recent performances by Atlético Rafaela have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ferrocarril is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Atlético Rafaela could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético de Rafaela
Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.05.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Atlético de Rafaela	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia y Tiro	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Atlético de Rafaela	2:1 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Gimnasia Jujuy	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Agropecuario Argentino	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLTW
- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
17.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Agropecuario Argentino	2:0 ✺
09.05.26	Tristán Suárez - Ferrocarril Midland	1:3 ✺
03.05.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.04.26	Deportivo Morón - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 WWWLW

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