Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 12

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Raul Roberto Sabureau Stadium (Buenos Aires)


	Ferrocarril Midland		Güemes

	1	X	2
	1.71	3	5.75	Watch
	1.78	3	5
	1.72	3.05	5.5	Watch
	1.79	3.13	6.35
	1.82	2.85	6.1	Watch
	1.75	2.9	5
	1.77	3.03	5.8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.83)	2.99 ↑ (2.98)	5.64 ↑ (5.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferrocarril Midland
52.6%

Draw
31%

Güemes
16.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.1%

31.4%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.6%

30.5%

17%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Güemes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

The ML Model estimate for Ferrocarril Midland aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Güemes than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Ferrocarril Midland - Güemes Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Ferrocarril will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Güemes will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leguiza M. (G) 4. Diaz Laharque L. 2. Cepeda G. 6. Gonzalez F. 3. Castorani P. 8. Frattini M. 5. Violini N. 10. Roseti M. 11. Campana A. I. 7. Cao R. 9. Perales J.	1. Finochietto L. (G) 4. Bordon A. 2. Oneto T. 6. Melillan F. 3. Benitez M. 8. Berges F. 5. Baier G. 10. Veliz D. 11. Godoy F. 7. Sala S. G. 9. Sanchez J.
Substitutes
15. Camano J. 20. Flores M. 12. Garcia Rossi S. (G) 17. Gargiulo V. 13. Gigli L. 16. Guzman D. 14. Penepil M. 19. Torancio E. 18. Vico L.	19. Amilivia T. 15. Arnay R. 16. Gerez M. 14. Gonzalez A. (G) 12. Martinez L. (G) 20. Mendoza J. 18. Pugliese G. 17. Quiroz M. 13. Vanegas Zuniga O. L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Melillan F. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Cao R. ⚽, Roseti M. (A),
40', Berges F. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Veliz D. ↓, Amilivia T. ↑,
46', Berges F. ↓, Gerez M. ↑,
52', 1 - 1, Sanchez J. ⚽,
66', Frattini M. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
73', Sanchez J. 🟨,
77', Casarico P. ↓, Gargiulo V. ↑,
77', Cao R. ↓, Torancio E. ↑,
78', Sanchez J. ↓, Mendoza J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Gargiulo V. ⚽, Campana A. I. (A),
85', Perales J. ↓, Camano J. ↑,
85', Campana A. I. ↓, Gigli L. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 15).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Ferrocarril is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferrocarril Midland
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland	1:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
22.04.26	Deportivo Morón - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - San Martín de San Juan	0:1 ✺
13.04.26	Nueva Chicago - Ferrocarril Midland	2:2 ✺
08.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Acassuso	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWLTW
- CA Güemes
Argentinian Primera Nacional
26.04.26	Güemes - Atlanta Buenos Aires	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Gimnasia y Tiro - Güemes	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Güemes - San Martín de Tucumán	0:2 ✺
05.04.26	Atlético de Rafaela - Güemes	1:2 ✺
29.03.26	Güemes - Mitre	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LTLWT

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