Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 11

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio de Chacarita Juniors (Buenos Aires)


	Chacarita Juniors		Ferrocarril Midland

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.82	3	Watch
	2.4	2.85	3
	2.25	2.88	3.35
	2.35	2.95	3.64
	2.31	2.82	3.62	Watch
	2.5	2.7	3
	2.18	2.85	3.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (2.3)	2.84 ↓ (2.86)	3.3 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chacarita Juniors
39.1%

Draw
32.7%

Ferrocarril Midland
28.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

32.7%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

32.1%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chacarita Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Ferrocarril Midland has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacarita Juniors than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferrocarril Midland than the current prediction. (-1%)

Chacarita Juniors - Ferrocarril Midland Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Ferrocarril (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ferrocarril (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bologna E. (G) 9. Cabral F. 10. Cuello A. 11. Cuevas J. 4. Dell Aquila N. 7. Melendez M. 6. Mottes G. 3. Pantaleone N. 5. Perez T. 8. Sanabria M. 2. Velazquez J. (C)	1. Leguiza M. (G) 8. Camano J. 11. Campana A. I. 22. Cao R. 3. Casarico P. 2. Cepeda G. 4. Diaz Laharque L. 6. Gonzalez F. 7. Rogoski M. 10. Roseti M. 5. Violini N. (C)
Substitutes
12. Anchoverri S. (G) 20. Barbieri J. 17. Brun L. 15. Bustos L. 14. Chaves N. 18. Dos Santos T. 13. Leyendeker M. 16. Mellado M. 19. Ramirez S.	15. Aguilar D. 14. Castorani P. 19. Flores M. 16. Frattini M. 12. Garcia Rossi S. (G) 13. Gigli L. 17. Penepil M. 18. Torancio E. 20. Vega J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
23', Cuello A. 🟨,
45+1', Violini N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
61', Campana A. I. ↓, Vega J. ↑,
62', Cepeda G. 🟨,
64', Velazquez J. 🟨,
65', Sanabria M. 🟨,
66', Cabral F. ↓, Barbieri J. ↑,
66', Dell Aquila N. ↓, Leyendeker M. ↑,
66', Pantaleone N. ↓, Chaves N. ↑,
68', Cuevas J. 🟨,
72', Roseti M. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
72', Violini N. ↓, Aguilar D. ↑,
75', Cuevas J. ↓, Brun L. ↑,
75', Cuello A. ↓, Bustos L. ↑,
78', 1 - 0, Barbieri J. ⚽, Sanabria M. (A),
81', Camano J. ↓, Torancio E. ↑,
81', Casarico P. ↓, Penepil M. ↑,
90+1', Brun L. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 15 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Chacarita is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ferrocarril has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chacarita may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Chacarita will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Chacarita Juniors - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chacarita Juniors
Argentinian Primera Nacional
20.04.26	Atlanta Buenos Aires - Chacarita Juniors	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Chacarita Juniors - Gimnasia y Tiro	2:0 ✺
04.04.26	San Martín de Tucumán - Chacarita Juniors	1:1 ✺
29.03.26	Chacarita Juniors - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:3 ✺
22.03.26	Chacarita Juniors - Atlético de Rafaela	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 LWTLL
- Ferrocarril Midland
Copa Argentina
22.04.26	Deportivo Morón - Ferrocarril Midland	1:2 ✺
Argentinian Primera Nacional
18.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - San Martín de San Juan	0:1 ✺
13.04.26	Nueva Chicago - Ferrocarril Midland	2:2 ✺
08.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Acassuso	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Ferrocarril Midland - Temperley	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WLTWT

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