Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 14

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday


	Aurrerá de Vitoria		Derio

	1	X	2
	2.88	2.92	2.4
	2.9	2.95	2.5
	3.33	3.18	2.14	Watch
	2.88	2.8	2.5
	2.92	2.89	2.42
	2.85	2.9	2.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↑ (2.48)	2.94 ↓ (3.15)	2.4 ↓ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurrerá de Vitoria
30.9%

Draw
31.1%

Derio
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

28.9%

34.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

28.7%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurrerá de Vitoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aurrerá de Vitoria's form might have worsened.

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurrerá de Vitoria than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aurrerá de Vitoria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Derio than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
40', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
87', 1 - 1, Mayo Arce M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 7 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 4 (Play Offs: )).

Recent performances by Aurrerá de Vitoria have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Derio is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Aurrerá de Vitoria has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurrerá de Vitoria
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
06.12.25	Touring KE - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Zarautz KE - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Leioa - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
01.11.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Eibar C	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Añorga - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWLWT
- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
07.12.25	Derio - Leioa	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Eibar C - Derio	1:1 ✺
15.11.25	Derio - Añorga	4:0 ✺
08.11.25	Durango - Derio	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWLW

Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide