Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 19

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Aurrerá de Vitoria		Pasaia

	1	X	2
	2.3	2.88	3
	2.35	2.96	3.16
	5.91	3.63	1.57	Watch
	2.3	2.8	3.1
	2.31	2.85	3.15
	2.25	3	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.9 ↑ (2.34)	3.02 ↑ (2.89)	2.85 ↓ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurrerá de Vitoria
33.5%

Draw
32.2%

Pasaia
34.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

39.1%

31.7%

29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

28.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurrerá de Vitoria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aurrerá de Vitoria's form might have worsened.

Pasaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aurrerá de Vitoria than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Aurrerá de Vitoria - Pasaia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
45', 1 - 0, ⚽,
45', 2 - 0, ⚽,
45', 3 - 0, ⚽,
45', 3 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 12 and 14)

Aurrerá de Vitoria has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pasaia has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Aurrerá de Vitoria will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aurrerá de Vitoria won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Aurrerá de Vitoria won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Aurrera de Vitoria	8	5	1	2	12:13	-1	16
13	Pasaia	8	3	1	4	10:16	-6	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurrerá de Vitoria
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
17.01.26	Lagun Onak - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
10.01.26	Deusto - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:2 ✺
03.01.26	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	San Ignacio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWLLT
- Pasaia KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
17.01.26	Pasaia - Leioa	1:3 ✺
10.01.26	Pasaia - Eibar C	1:2 ✺
04.01.26	Añorga - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Pasaia - Durango	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Aretxabaleta - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
13.09.25	Pasaia - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:1
04.02.23	Pasaia - Aurrerá de Vitoria	1:1
01.10.22	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Pasaia	1:3

Aurrerá de Vitoria - Pasaia