Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 16

Date: 3 January 2026, Saturday


	Aurrerá de Vitoria		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	5.7	3.75	1.49
	5.35	3.6	1.61	Watch
	6	3.5	1.5
	5.75	3.87	1.57
	5.75	3.66	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.71 ↓ (6.24)	3.68 ↓ (3.81)	1.54 ↑ (1.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aurrerá de Vitoria
16%

Draw
24.8%

Portugalete
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.5%

23.7%

61.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.2%

23.2%

63.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aurrerá de Vitoria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Portugalete has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Aurrerá de Vitoria than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Aranburu I. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 1 - 1, ⚽,
77', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, Aurrerá de Vitoria has had a series of away games.

In this match, Portugalete is a strong favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Aurrerá de Vitoria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:9. (average 0.3:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Aurrerá de Vitoria won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Aurrera de Vitoria	5	4	1	0	10:4	6	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aurrerá de Vitoria
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
21.12.25	San Ignacio - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:1 ✺
13.12.25	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Derio	1:1 ✺
06.12.25	Touring KE - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Zarautz KE - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:2 ✺
08.11.25	Leioa - Aurrerá de Vitoria	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 LTTWL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Portugalete - Leioa	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Eibar C - Portugalete	0:5 ✺
06.12.25	Portugalete - Añorga	3:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
02.12.25	Portugalete - Deportivo Alavés	0:3 ✺
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
22.11.25	Durango - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
11.02.23	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	0:0
Spanish Tercera Division - Play Offs
15.04.18	Portugalete - Aurrerá de Vitoria	6:1
19.11.17	Aurrerá de Vitoria - Portugalete	0:3

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