Match Info
Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 18Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday
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Pasaia |
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Leioa |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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3.45 |
2.88 |
2.12 |
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 |
1.00 |
1.00 |
1.07 |
 Watch |
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3.5 |
2.75 |
2.15 |
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3.59 |
2.88 |
2.11 |
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3.5 |
2.9 |
2.12 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.01 ↓
(3.65) |
2.48 ↓
(3.15) |
1.91 ↓
(1.98) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
- The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Pasaia
26.4% | Draw
32% | Leioa
41.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pasaia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)Leioa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leioa than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Leioa could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Pasaia - Leioa Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, Garces U. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 80', 0 - 2, ⚽,
- 85', 1 - 2, ⚽,
- 90+9', 1 - 3, ⚽,
Preview
Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 7).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2.Pasaia has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).Leioa has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins โ 2). Leioa might have a minor edge in this game.In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Pasaia won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:22. (average 1.3:2.8).Including home matches between the teams, Pasaia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 2:2.3).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 3 | Pasaia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7:6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12:6 | 6 | 9 |
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4 | | | 06.09.25 | Leioa - Pasaia | 0:1 | | 19.10.24 | Leioa - Pasaia | 5:2 | | 10.02.24 | Pasaia - Leioa | 1:2 | | 24.09.23 | Leioa - Pasaia | 3:1 | | 22.04.23 | Pasaia - Leioa | 3:2 | | 08.01.23 | Leioa - Pasaia | 7:0 | | 19.03.22 | Leioa - Pasaia | 0:0 |
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