Match Info

Serie B - Round 17

Date: 12 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Dr. Aderbal Ramos da Silva (Ressacada) (Florianópolis)

Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Disney+, RedeTV!
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Avaí		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.1	3	Watch
	2.65	3.10	2.50
	2.32	3.2	2.98	Watch
	2.49	3.35	2.98
	2.72	3.1	2.68	Watch
	2.3	3.2	2.9
	2.37	3.06	3.12	Watch
	2.33	3.2	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 ↓ (2.6)	3.16 ↓ (3.35)	2.89 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avaí
38.1%

Draw
29.5%

Náutico Capibaribe
32.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.8%

27.8%

36.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.4%

26.7%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Náutico Capibaribe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	40%	30%

Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Avaí will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Náutico (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Avaí (1.91) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Avaí (votes: 3 - 75%). Náutico (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Wallison 3. Allyson 38. Jefferson Maciel 36. DG 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 8. Luiz Henrique 43. Thayllon 10. Jean Lucas 11. Sorriso 14. Daniel Penha	1. Muriel Becker (C) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 34. Wanderson 46. Gustavo Henrique 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 22. Leonai Souza 29. Junior Todinho 27. Luiz Felipe 11. Victor Andrade 72. Derek
Substitutes
4. Gabriel Simples 15. Guilherme Aquino 16. Jamerson 50. Joao Maistro 17. Juan Rocha 90. Kevin 29. Marcio Vitor 21. Otavio Passos (G) 66. Quaresma 95. Wenderson 52. Wesley Gasolina 56. William	5. Auremir 30. Felipe Cardoso 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 19. Kauan Maranhao 15. Leo Indio 66. Leo Jance 16. Luiz Claudio 60. Luiz Paulo 93. Reginaldo 41. Samuel Felix
Coaches
Cauan de Almeida	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, DG ⚽, Wallison (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Leonai Souza ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
46', Derek ↓, Kauan Maranhao ↑,
62', Sorriso ↓, William ↑,
69', Victor Andrade ↓, Felipe Cardoso ↑,
69', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
69', Wallison ↓, Wesley Gasolina ↑,
76', Thayllon ↓, Juan Rocha ↑,
76', DG ↓, Joao Maistro ↑,
76', Jefferson Maciel ↓, Guilherme Aquino ↑,
78', Jean Lucas 🟨,
79', Igor Fernandes ↓, Leo Jance ↑,
84', Gustavo Henrique 🟨,
90+6', William 🟥,
90+9', 2 - 0, Daniel Penha ⚽, Juan Rocha (A),

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 4.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Recently, Avaí has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Avaí: Isaias (Injury) Leo Aragao (Inactive) Paulo Vitor (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Náutico: Betao (Inactive) Vinicius (Inactive)

There are questionable in Avaí: Cristiano (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive) Rafael Bilu (Inactive)

There are questionable in Náutico: Arnaldo (Inactive) Paulo Sergio (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Avaí won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:9. (average 1.8:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Avaí won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.77%, but this team recently wins 41% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
06.07.26	Botafogo SP - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
15.06.26	Londrina - Avaí	3:2 ✺
10.06.26	Ceará - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLWLL
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
05.07.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	0:0 ✺
28.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Goiás	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
21.11.21	Náutico Capibaribe - Avaí	1:2
14.08.21	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0
06.11.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Avaí	2:2
08.08.20	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	3:1
12.11.16	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	3:0
22.07.16	Náutico Capibaribe - Avaí	3:1
04.10.14	Avaí - Náutico Capibaribe	0:2

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