Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 6 July 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Nascimento J. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Botafogo SP		Avaí

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.3	5.75	Watch
	1.73	3.25	4.75
	1.72	3.35	5.15	Watch
	1.75	3.52	5.55
	1.71	3.45	5.32	Watch
	1.7	3.5	5.5
	1.7	3.29	5.73	Watch
	1.73	3.35	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.71 ↓ (1.95)	3.38 ↑ (3.3)	5.34 ↑ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
54.7%

Draw
27.8%

Avaí
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

28.3%

23.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.8%

23.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Botafogo SP's performance.

Avaí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Avaí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Botafogo SP that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Avaí could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.9%	6.5%	9.7%

Botafogo SP - Avaí Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Avaí (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Botafogo SP will win (26 of 30 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.51% – 98.83%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo SP (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Avaí (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Souza (G) 31. Pedro Henrique 3. Ericson 4. Vilar 6. Patrick Brey (C) 16. Matheus Sales 30. Ze Hugo 8. Everton Morelli 10. Rafael Gava 7. Kelvin 9. Hygor	1. Igor Bohn (G) 2. Wallison 3. Allyson 50. Joao Maistro 52. Wesley Gasolina 77. Ze Ricardo (C) 25. Paulo Vitor 36. DG 43. Thayllon 10. Jean Lucas 14. Daniel Penha
Substitutes
26. Felipe Vieira 15. Guilherme Mariano 17. Guilherme Queiroz 34. Hebert 11. Jefferson Nem 12. Jordan (G) 5. Leandro Maciel 19. Marcio Maranhao 29. Thiago Moraes 13. Wallace 23. Wesley Santos 20. Yuri Felipe	15. Guilherme Aquino 16. Jamerson 38. Jefferson Maciel 29. Marcio Vitor 21. Otavio Passos (G) 66. Quaresma 11. Sorriso 95. Wenderson 56. William
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Cauan de Almeida

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', Paulo Vitor 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Everton Morelli ⚽, Ze Hugo (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', DG ↓, William ↑,
46', Wesley Gasolina ↓, Wenderson ↑,
54', 2 - 0, Hygor ⚽, Ze Hugo (A),
58', 2 - 1, Wallison ⚽, Thayllon (A),
58', Paulo Vitor ↓, Marcio Vitor ↑,
64', Kelvin ↓, Jefferson Nem ↑,
64', Pedro Henrique ↓, Yuri Felipe ↑,
77', Matheus Sales ↓, Leandro Maciel ↑,
77', Hygor ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
78', Wenderson 🟨,
80', 3 - 1, Patrick Brey ⚽,
81', Daniel Penha ↓, Jamerson ↑,
86', Ze Hugo ↓, Felipe Vieira ↑,
88', Thayllon ↓, Quaresma ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 0.

In recent matches, Botafogo SP has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Avaí is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Avaí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Avaí has had a series of away games.

In this match, Botafogo SP is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Knee Injury) Darlan (Injury) Jonathan (Injury) Marco Antonio (Injury)

There will not play in Avaí: Isaias (Injury) Jefferson Maciel (Injury) Leo Aragao (Inactive) Luiz Henrique (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Avaí: Cristiano (Inactive) Pedro Cuiaba (Inactive) Rafael Bilu (Inactive)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:12. (average 0.5:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38
17	Avai	32	9	6	17	32:43	-11	33

Last Results with these Odds

Avaí - the odds 3.9 are the expected chance of winning is 23.91%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
30.06.26	Botafogo SP - CRB Maceio	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ceará - Botafogo SP	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Botafogo SP - Operário Ferroviario	2:1 ✺
08.06.26	Vila Nova - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
01.06.26	Ponte Preta - Botafogo SP	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LWWLT
- Avaí
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Athletic Club - Avaí	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Avaí - Cuiabá	1:0 ✺
15.06.26	Londrina - Avaí	3:2 ✺
10.06.26	Ceará - Avaí	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
07.06.26	Chapecoense - Avaí	3:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.11.25	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:0
28.07.25	Avaí - Botafogo SP	5:0
18.11.24	Botafogo SP - Avaí	1:3
30.07.24	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1
07.10.23	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:1
11.06.23	Avaí - Botafogo SP	1:1
23.11.20	Botafogo SP - Avaí	0:1

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