Match Info

Serie B - Round 16

Date: 5 July 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Silveira L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Náutico Capibaribe		Juventude

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.85	3.4
	2.35	2.95	3.00
	2.42	2.88	3.1
	2.48	3.04	3.32
	2.46	2.93	3.17	Watch
	2.4	2.95	3.25
	2.4	2.9	3.2
	2.42	2.9	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↑ (2.08)	2.93 ↓ (3.12)	3.19 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
38.9%

Draw
31.9%

Juventude
29.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

31.9%

23.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Náutico Capibaribe's form might have worsened.

Juventude has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Náutico Capibaribe, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Juventude than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Juventude, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.7%	23.5%	11.8%

Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 11 - 64.7%). Juventude will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 23.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Náutico: 42% – 87.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Juventude (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Juventude (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (C) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 34. Wanderson 46. Gustavo Henrique 23. Igor Fernandes 8. Wenderson 41. Samuel Felix 29. Junior Todinho 10. Dodo 11. Victor Andrade 72. Derek	93. Jandrei (G) 97. Gabriel Pinheiro 4. Messias (C) 47. Marcos Paulo 2. Rai Ramos 75. Rai Silva 8. Lucas Mineiro 30. Patryck 11. Fabio Lima 10. MP 25. Alisson Safira
Substitutes
5. Auremir 30. Felipe Cardoso 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 18. Halan 13. Indio 99. Isaque Ferreira 66. Leo Jance 22. Leonai Souza 16. Luiz Claudio 25. Mateus Silva 93. Reginaldo	20. Allanzinho 17. Castro M. 88. Davi Goes 5. Luan Martins 26. Ly I. 44. Mandaca 12. Pedro Rocha (G) 27. Ray Breno 34. Rodrigo Sam 21. Ruan Carneiro (G) 3. Titi 6. Wadson
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Mauricio Barbieri

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Jandrei 🟨,
43', Junior Todinho ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
48', Derek 🟨,
53', Alisson Safira 🟨,
64', Rai Silva ↓, Mandaca ↑,
64', Lucas Mineiro ↓, Luan Martins ↑,
64', Gustavo Henrique ↓, Leo Jance ↑,
72', MP ↓, Allanzinho ↑,
72', Patryck ↓, Wadson ↑,
79', Matheus Ribeiro 🟨,
82', Fabio Lima ↓, Castro M. ↑,
84', Derek ↓, Luiz Claudio ↑,
85', Wenderson 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1.

Náutico has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Juventude is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Juventude may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Náutico is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1.3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 2.3:1.7).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Juventude	32	17	8	7	37:19	18	59
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Goiás	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Vila Nova - Náutico Capibaribe	4:3 ✺
14.06.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Náutico Capibaribe	2:2 ✺
09.06.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Sport Recife - Náutico Capibaribe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLTLL
- EC Juventude
Brazilian Serie B
28.06.26	Juventude - Ceará	2:0 ✺
21.06.26	São Bernardo - Juventude	0:1 ✺
14.06.26	Juventude - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
05.06.26	Operário Ferroviario - Juventude	2:1 ✺
29.05.26	Juventude - América Mineiro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
28.11.20	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0
22.08.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	3:3
Brazilian Serie C
22.09.19	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	3:1 penalties
15.09.19	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	2:1
Brazilian Serie B
24.10.17	Juventude - Náutico Capibaribe	0:0
11.07.17	Náutico Capibaribe - Juventude	1:1

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