Match Info

Serie B - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Referee: Doveri D. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, SportyNet, Zapping
Israel	5 GOLD Israel
Italy	DAZN Italia, Destination Calcio, LAB Channel
Russia	Telekanal Futbol
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Turkey	Sifir
United-kingdom	DCTV
Usa	DCTV, SportsEngine Play
World	OneFootball TV


	Avellino		Palermo

	1	X	2
	4	3.4	1.91	Watch
	3.70	3.40	1.98
	3.75	3.2	1.95	Watch
	4.1	3.4	2.06
	3.92	3.21	2.01	Watch
	4	3.3	1.98
	3.87	3.32	1.97	Watch
	3.8	3.3	1.98
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.89 ↑ (3.13)	3.32 ↑ (3.05)	1.98 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
24.2%

Draw
28.4%

Palermo
47.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.8%

30.6%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.4%

30.1%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Avellino's form might have worsened.

Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Avellino, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-7.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Palermo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Avellino - Palermo Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Palermo will win (votes: 8 - 88.9%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 68.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Avellino (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Martinelli T. (G) 4. Izzo A. (C) 23. Venturi M. 56. Enrici P. 29. Cancellotti T. 8. Di Maggio L. 39. Besaggio M. 20. Palumbo M. 27. Moruzzi B. 7. Pandolfi L. 10. Russo R.	14. Fortin M. (G) 84. Cassandro T. 13. Bani M. (C) 93. Barba F. 11. Gyasi E. 8. Segre J. 10. Ranocchia F. 3. Augello T. 5. Palumbo A. 9. Vavassori D. 20. Pohjanpalo J.
Substitutes
30. Adamo E. 18. Berenbruch T. 14. Biasci T. 9. Cheddira W. 5. Di Bitonto A. 77. Di Paolo S. 16. Faticanti G. 1. Iannarilli A. (G) 2. Missori F. 6. Palmiero L. 3. Sala M. 24. Sounas D.	63. Balaguss N. (G) 33. Bozzolan A. 32. Ceccaroni P. 24. Estevez N. 99. Gabrielloni A. 6. Gomes C. 17. Johnsen D. 96. Magnani G. 12. Nespola M. (G) 27. Pierozzi N.
Coaches
Nesta A.	Inzaghi F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Cancellotti T. ↓, Missori F. ↑,
35', Bani M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Missori F. 🟨,
57', Pandolfi L. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
59', Segre J. ↓, Estevez N. ↑,
59', Gyasi E. ↓, Johnsen D. ↑,
60', 1 - 0, Cheddira W. ⚽, Russo R. (A),
63', 1 - 1, Johnsen D. ⚽, Pohjanpalo J. (A),
76', Ranocchia F. ↓, Gomes C. ↑,
77', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Gabrielloni A. ↑,
84', Venturi M. 🟨,
86', Di Maggio L. ↓, Sounas D. ↑,
86', Moruzzi B. ↓, Sala M. ↑,
87', Russo R. ↓, Biasci T. ↑,
87', Cassandro T. ↓, Pierozzi N. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 1.

Avellino has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Palermo is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Avellino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Palermo has had a series of home games.

Palermo might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Avellino: Fila D. (Injury) Palmiero L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Palermo: Joronen J. (Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 0.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Avellino won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of Italian Serie B for now

Palermo: 42.72% Avellino: 1.55%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Palermo	5	4	1	0	10:5	5	13
9	Avellino	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Avellino - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.83%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
06.09.26	Modena - Avellino	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Avellino - Vicenza Virtus	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Avellino - Arezzo	1:2 ✺
Coppa Italia
14.08.26	Monza - Avellino	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Lazio - Avellino	6:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWLLL
- U.S. Città di Palermo
Italian Serie B
07.09.26	Palermo - Sampdoria	3:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
03.09.26	Palermo - Mantova	5:2 ✺
Italian Serie B
30.08.26	Arezzo - Palermo	2:3 ✺
23.08.26	Palermo - Juve Stabia	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
17.08.26	Palermo - Lecce	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
05.04.26	Palermo - Avellino	2:0
20.12.25	Avellino - Palermo	2:2
Italian Serie C Group C
13.03.22	Avellino - Palermo	1:2
31.10.21	Palermo - Avellino	1:1
Italian Serie C Group A
26.05.21	Avellino - Palermo	1:0
23.05.21	Palermo - Avellino	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
07.02.21	Avellino - Palermo	1:0

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