Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi (Avellino)

Referee: Perri M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel
World	Onefootball


	Avellino		Virtus Entella

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.85	2.75	Watch
	2.62	2.98	2.72
	2.76	2.98	2.98
	1.42	3.88	9.24	Watch
	2.69	3.05	2.81	Watch
	2.7	3.2	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↓ (2.65)	3.16 ↑ (3.15)	3.86 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Avellino
41.2%

Draw
32.3%

Virtus Entella
26.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

29.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

29.6%

35.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Avellino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Avellino's performance.

Virtus Entella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Virtus Entella might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avellino than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Avellino that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Virtus Entella than the current prediction. (+8.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Virtus Entella could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Avellino - Virtus Entella Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Avellino will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Virtus Entella will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 3 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Avellino (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Virtus Entella (1.44) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Avellino (votes: 1 - 20%). Virtus Entella (votes: 1 - 20%). Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Iannarilli A. (G) 29. Cancellotti T. 44. Simic L. 63. Fontanarosa A. 2. Missori F. 6. Palmiero L. (C) 39. Besaggio M. 23. Cagnano A. 16. Kumi J. 14. Biasci T. 17. Crespi V.	22. Del Frate F. (G) 23. Parodi L. (C) 42. Moretti L. 15. Marconi I. 26. Di Mario S. 20. Fumagalli T. 50. Benali A. 94. Mezzoni F. 24. Franzoni A. 8. Karic N. 45. Ankeye D.
Substitutes
21. Armellino M. 57. Campanile A. 30. Daffara G. (G) 8. Gyabuaa M. 94. Insigne R. 32. Lescano F. 79. Manzi C. 78. Milani A. 20. Palumbo M. 45. Pane P. (G) 33. Panico G. 10. Russo R.	7. Bariti D. 77. Boccadamo A. 81. Bottaro A. 30. Carbone M. 1. Colombi S. (G) 27. Dalla Vecchia M. 19. Debenedetti A. 5. Lipani J. 4. Nichetti M. 2. Palomba L. 90. Portanova D. 80. Rinaldini R. (G)
Coaches
Biancolino R.	Chiappella A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Biasci T. ⚽, Cancellotti T. (A),
34', Benali A. 🟨,
41', Parodi L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
67', Ankeye D. ↓, Debenedetti A. ↑,
67', Benali A. ↓, Nichetti M. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Kumi J. ⚽,
70', Besaggio M. ↓, Gyabuaa M. ↑,
76', Crespi V. ↓, Russo R. ↑,
76', Biasci T. ↓, Lescano F. ↑,
78', Parodi L. ↓, Dalla Vecchia M. ↑,
79', Marconi I. ↓, Bariti D. ↑,
79', Franzoni A. ↓, Boccadamo A. ↑,
85', Kumi J. ↓, Palumbo M. ↑,
85', Palmiero L. ↓, Armellino M. ↑,
90+3', Cagnano A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Virtus Entella may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Avellino: D'Andrea L. (Knee Injury) De Cristofaro A. (Knee Injury) Enrici P. (Red Card) Favilli A. (Tendon Injury) Patierno C. (Illness) Rigione M. (Muscle Injury) Tutino G. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Virtus Entella: Siaulys O. (Inactive) Tiritiello A. (Red Card)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Avellino won 1 match, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 0.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Avellino won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Virtus Entella - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 35.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Avellino
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Carrarese - Avellino	3:4 ✺
12.09.25	Avellino - Monza	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Modena - Avellino	1:1 ✺
24.08.25	Frosinone - Avellino	2:0 ✺
Coppa Italia
10.08.25	Avellino - Audace Cerignola	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 WWTLL
- Virtus Entella
Italian Serie B
21.09.25	Padova - Virtus Entella	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Virtus Entella - Mantova	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Cesena - Virtus Entella	1:1 ✺
23.08.25	Virtus Entella - Juve Stabia	1:1 ✺
Coppa Italia
16.08.25	Cagliari - Virtus Entella	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Super Cup Serie C
10.05.25	Virtus Entella - Avellino	1:1
Italian Serie B
14.04.18	Virtus Entella - Avellino	1:1
11.11.17	Avellino - Virtus Entella	0:0
28.01.17	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:2
04.09.16	Virtus Entella - Avellino	2:0
14.05.16	Virtus Entella - Avellino	4:0
22.12.15	Avellino - Virtus Entella	2:0

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