Match Info

Championship - Round 11

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr) 🌤️ ...

Referee: MacDermid M. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Australia	05:30	beIN Connect
Italy	20:30	Como TV
New Zealand	07:30	beIN Connect
Scotland	19:30	BBC Scotland
United Kingdom	19:30	Ayr United Media, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, PTFC TV
Usa	14:30	Paramount+


	Ayr United		Partick Thistle

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.7	1.65
	4.40	3.70	1.60
	4.4	3.75	1.65	Watch
	4.78	3.9	1.72
	4.95	4.1	1.62	Watch
	4.65	3.85	1.69
	4.34	3.92	1.77	Watch
	4.5	3.85	1.67
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.53 ↑ (3.63)	3.85 ↑ (3.35)	1.67 ↓ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
20.5%

Draw
24.1%

Partick Thistle
55.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

25.4%

27.5%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.5%

26.5%

49%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Partick Thistle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Partick Thistle's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Partick Thistle than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Partick Thistle, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Ayr United - Partick Thistle Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Partick will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stone H. (G) 20. McBeth L. 5. Holt K. 3. Dick L. 32. Watret D. 12. Whyte O. 6. Lyon R. (C) 16. Summers B. 33. McMann S. 7. Stirton O. 21. Walker E.	1. Budinauckas L. (G) 24. McPherson B. 5. Ashcroft L. (C) 22. Loughrey C. 3. Reading P. 6. Dempsey B. 8. Smyth O. 26. Stanway B. 7. Drozd S. 32. Watt T. 10. Henderson E.
Substitutes
17. Hatton T. 8. King L. 9. Landers J. 2. McAllister N. 25. Mitchell K. 15. Murphy J. 23. Rus M. 38. Russell L. (G) 10. Shanks K.	14. Crawford R. 21. Fitzpatrick A. 17. Ingram E. 64. Letsosa T. 2. Logan C. 11. Mackay-Steven G. 12. McFarlane L. (G) 20. O'Reilly D. 9. Samuel A.
Coaches
Naysmith G.	Wilson M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
35', Smyth O. 🟨,
45', 0 - 1, Smyth O. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dick L. ↓, Hatton T. ↑,
56', McBeth L. 🟨,
57', Drozd S. 🟨,
62', Henderson E. ↓, Fitzpatrick A. ↑,
65', Stirton O. ↓, Landers J. ↑,
65', Whyte O. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
69', Stanway B. ↓, Letsosa T. ↑,
72', Lyon R. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
75', Ashcroft L. 🟨,
76', Watt T. ↓, Samuel A. ↑,
76', Drozd S. ↓, Ingram E. ↑,
76', Walker E. ↓, Shanks K. ↑,
90', Letsosa T. 🟨,
90+1', Fitzpatrick A. 🟨,
90+3', McMann S. 🟨,
90+3', McPherson B. 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 7th and 3rd in the Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Quarter - finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 0.

Ayr has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Partick is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Partick carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ayr has recorded 3 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:34 (averaging 0.7:1.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ayr against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 8:18 goals (averaging 0.9:2 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Partick Thistle	12	7	4	1	15:4	11	25
7	Ayr	11	3	3	5	10:12	-2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
10.10.26	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Livingston - Ayr United	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Ayr United - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Queens Park - Ayr United	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Ayr United - Inverness	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.2 TWLWL
- Partick Thistle
Scottish Football Championship
10.10.26	Livingston - Partick Thistle	1:2 ✺
03.10.26	Partick Thistle - Arbroath	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Partick Thistle - Raith Rovers	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Stenhousemuir - Partick Thistle	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
05.09.26	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	1:0
04.04.26	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	1:1
24.01.26	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:1
06.12.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	0:0
21.10.25	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:1
Scottish League Cup
16.08.25	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	2:0
Scottish Premier League
09.05.25	Ayr United - Partick Thistle	0:2

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