Match Info

Championship - Round 10

Date: 10 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Somerset Park (Ayr)

Referee: McFarlane D. (Sco)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Ayr United Media, ParsTV Dunfermline


	Ayr United		Dunfermline Athletic

	1	X	2
	3.00	3.20	2.15
	3.00	3.10	2.15
	2.95	3.15	2.23	Watch
	3.44	3.20	2.35
	3.24	3.33	2.19	Watch
	3.40	2.95	2.30
	3.22	2.99	2.17	Watch
	3.15	3.25	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.14)	3.15 ↓ (3.22)	2.22 ↓ (2.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayr United
29.1%

Draw
29.3%

Dunfermline Athletic
41.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

29%

41.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.4%

27.7%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayr United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Dunfermline Athletic has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dunfermline Athletic than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Dunfermline will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stone H. (G) 2. McAllister N. 5. Holt K. 3. Dick L. 32. Watret D. 12. Whyte O. 6. Lyon R. (C) 20. McBeth L. 33. McMann S. 7. Stirton O. 21. Walker E.	1. Oxborough A. (G) 24. Lobban D. 15. Cleall-Harding S. 6. Abdulai N. 47. Fraser R. (C) 14. Amade A. 16. MacLeod R. 19. Oyirwoth A. 33. Cooper J. 26. Tod A. 99. Adams O.
Substitutes
34. Douglas J. 17. Hatton T. 9. Landers J. 25. Mitchell K. 15. Murphy J. 23. Rus M. 38. Russell L. (G) 10. Shanks K. 16. Summers B.	22. Bray K. 18. Corbally K. 12. Dibaga M. (G) 25. Donnelly A. 8. Gilmour C. 11. Kearney S. 7. Morrison C. 9. Rudden Z. 10. Shaw O.
Coaches
Naysmith G.	Lennon N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Amade A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 0 - 1, Cooper J. (Penalty Awarded),
58', 1 - 1, Holt K. ⚽, Whyte O. (A),
58', Adams O. 🟨,
62', Lyon R. 🟨,
63', Adams O. ↓, Shaw O. ↑,
66', McAllister N. ↓, Summers B. ↑,
77', Stirton O. ↓, Landers J. ↑,
78', Lyon R. ↓, Rus M. ↑,
78', Walker E. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
78', Tod A. ↓, Morrison C. ↑,
78', Oyirwoth A. ↓, Bray K. ↑,
82', Whyte O. 🟨,
83', Shaw O. 🟨,
90+2', Lobban D. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 6th and 5th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ayr won 2.

In recent outings, Ayr has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Dunfermline shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Dunfermline holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Ayr has recorded 7 wins, 8 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 24:23 (averaging 1.2:1.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ayr against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with 14:12 goals (averaging 1.4:1.2 per game).

Outrights of Scottish Football Championship for now

Dunfermline: 7.88% Ayr: 1.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Dunfermline	8	3	4	1	7:5	2	13
7	Ayr	10	3	3	4	10:11	-1	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayr United
Scottish Football Championship
03.10.26	Livingston - Ayr United	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Ayr United - Stenhousemuir	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Queens Park - Ayr United	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Ayr United - Inverness	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Partick Thistle - Ayr United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WLWLL
- Dunfermline Athletic
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Aberdeen	1:4 ✺
Scottish Football Championship
19.09.26	Greenock Morton - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Queens Park	2:0 ✺
05.09.26	Arbroath - Dunfermline Athletic	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Raith Rovers	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Football Championship
08.08.26	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	1:1
07.04.26	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	0:3
20.12.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	2:3
31.10.25	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	0:1
23.09.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	0:1
29.03.25	Ayr United - Dunfermline Athletic	3:0
14.01.25	Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United	0:2

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