Match Info

Ligi Kuu Bara - Round 7

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday

Location: Azam Complex Stadium (Dar es Salaam)


	Azam		Mtibwa Sugar

	1	X	2
	1.36	4	7.75
	1.32	4.25	8.3
	1.24	5.12	10.06
	1.25	5.06	10.83	Watch
	1.22	4.4	13
	1.21	4.9	14.6	Watch
	1.33	4.2	9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.34)	4.56 ↑ (4.02)	10.51 ↑ (8.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azam
71.4%

Draw
20%

Mtibwa Sugar
8.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.2%

22.5%

10.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.9%

21.6%

9.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azam has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Mtibwa Sugar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Azam than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mtibwa Sugar than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Azam - Mtibwa Sugar Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Foba Z. (G) 10. Abah A. 2. Akaminko J. 3. Diaby Y. 24. Fuentes Mendoza Y. D. 23. Mkami H. 12. Msindo P. 5. Mwaikenda L. (C) 11. Nado I. 19. Ngita J. 6. Salum F.	38. Malimi C. (G) 20. Chicharo 16. Collins V. 13. Datius P. 69. Evance F. 26. Liuzio J. 21. Magata F. 3. Masai O. (C) 45. Mkopi S. 17. Msafiri K. 12. Nyangi J.
Substitutes
. Ally I. . Bitegeko A. 20. Chilambo N. . Diakite C. . Kibeku A. 30. Kitambala J. . Manula A. (G) . Mzee M. 7. Sereri Z. . Twalib M.	. Bozi 8. Buzungu O. 29. Chota G. . Francis 10. Hafidh R. 15. Kyaruzi E. 24. Laurent A. 11. Mhesa I. 31. Reuben T. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
2', 1 - 0, Salum F. ⚽, Mwaikenda L. (A),
19', 2 - 0, Ngita J. ⚽, Salum F. (A),
43', Datius P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Nyangi J. 🟨,
54', Collins V. 🟨,
56', Masai O. ↓, Kyaruzi E. ↑,
57', Liuzio J. ↓, Mrisho R. ↑,
59', 3 - 0, Ngita J. ⚽, Mwaikenda L. (A),
90+3', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Azam won 5.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Azam may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mtibwa Sugar has had a series of home games.

In this match, Azam is the clear favorite.

We predict that Azam will win today's game, with odds of 1.34.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Azam won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 22:12. (average 1.6:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Azam won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:4. (average 1.9:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Azam	7	4	2	1	11:7	4	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azam FC
Tanzanian Premier League
22.02.26	Kinondoni MC - Azam	0:2 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
15.02.26	Wydad Casablanca - Azam	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Azam - Maniema Union	1:0 ✺
01.02.26	Azam - Nairobi United	1:0 ✺
Tanzanian Premier League
29.01.26	Azam - TRA United	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLWWW
- Mtibwa Sugar FC
Tanzanian Premier League
13.02.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Mashujaa	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Namungo	1:1 ✺
02.02.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Prisons	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Pamba	1:0 ✺
21.01.26	Mtibwa Sugar - Mbeya City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Tanzanian Premier League
06.05.24	Mtibwa Sugar - Azam	0:2
24.11.23	Azam - Mtibwa Sugar	5:0
07.04.23	Azam - Mtibwa Sugar	2:1
12.11.22	Mtibwa Sugar - Azam	3:4
21.05.22	Mtibwa Sugar - Azam	1:2
30.11.21	Azam - Mtibwa Sugar	1:0
09.04.21	Azam - Mtibwa Sugar	2:0

Azam - Mtibwa Sugar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide