Match Info

J3 League - Round 17

Date: 21 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Ashitaka Park Stadium (Numazu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Azul Claro Numazu		Ryūkyū

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.5
				Watch
	2	3.52	3.61
				Watch
	1.95	3.2	3.5
	1.9	3.4	3.59	Watch
	2.4	3.4	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↓ (2.3)	3.36 ↓ (3.5)	3.39 ↑ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Azul Claro Numazu
45.5%

Draw
27.3%

Ryūkyū
27.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

25.9%

34.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

24.9%

36.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Azul Claro Numazu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Azul Claro Numazu's performance.

Ryūkyū has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ryūkyū might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Azul Claro Numazu than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Azul Claro Numazu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ryūkyū than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ryūkyū could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Azul Claro Numazu - Ryūkyū Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Watanabe K. (G) 16. Mihara S. 4. Rissi G. 28. Inoue K. 2. Miyawaki S. 71. Watanabe R. 24. Yanagimachi K. 14. Tokunaga K. 6. Toyama H. 23. Shirawachi K. 17. Fujii K.	16. Sato H. (G) 15. Araki R. 3. Kikuchi S. 14. Suzuki J. 4. Fujiharu H. 24. Sato Y. 55. Koki Y. 18. Hiramatsu S. 10. Tomidokoro Y. 20. Nagai S. 89. Takagi D.
Substitutes
20. Kawamata K. 3. Lucas Sena 21. Maeda H. (G) 35. Mukai H. 15. Nakamura Y. 7. Numata K. 19. Saito M. 10. Sato N. 13. Watai K.	17. Einaga T. 37. Gotoda K. 39. Ihara A. 8. Iwabuchi R. 13. Iwamoto S. 5. Kamiya K. 50. Kawashima K. (G) 7. Motegi S. 23. Sota K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
25', 0 - 1, Araki R. ⚽,
35', 0 - 2, Takagi D. ⚽, Nagai S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Araki R. 🟨,
67', Takagi D. ↓, Ihara A. ↑,
74', Nagai S. ↓, Motegi S. ↑,
74', Koki Y. ↓, Iwamoto S. ↑,
74', Hiramatsu S. ↓, Sota K. ↑,
75', Fujii K. ↓, Kawamata K. ↑,
75', Toyama H. ↓, Mukai H. ↑,
83', Araki R. ↓, Gotoda K. ↑,
84', Tokunaga K. ↓, Watai K. ↑,
84', Mihara S. ↓, Lucas Sena ↑,
89', Shirawachi K. ↓, Saito M. ↑,
90+4', Lucas Sena 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 19 in the zone J3 League (Relegation) and 20 in the zone Relegation).

In recent matches, Azul Claro Numazu has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ryūkyū is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Azul Claro Numazu might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Azul Claro Numazu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:5. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Azul Claro Numazu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Ryūkyū - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.8%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Azul Claro Numazu
Japan J3 League
14.06.25	Giravanz Kitakyushu - Azul Claro Numazu	1:0 ✺
08.06.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Zweigen Kanazawa	3:1 ✺
31.05.25	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Azul Claro Numazu	0:0 ✺
18.05.25	Azul Claro Numazu - Nagano Parceiro	0:0 ✺
06.05.25	Gifu - Azul Claro Numazu	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWTTL
- FC Ryūkyū
Japan J3 League
14.06.25	Ryūkyū - Matsumoto Yamaga	0:3 ✺
08.06.25	Vanraure Hachinohe - Ryūkyū	1:0 ✺
01.06.25	Zweigen Kanazawa - Ryūkyū	1:2 ✺
17.05.25	Ryūkyū - Giravanz Kitakyushu	0:1 ✺
06.05.25	Ryūkyū - Kagoshima United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J3 League
21.09.24	Ryūkyū - Azul Claro Numazu	1:1
24.03.24	Azul Claro Numazu - Ryūkyū	2:1
30.07.23	Azul Claro Numazu - Ryūkyū	4:0
03.06.23	Ryūkyū - Azul Claro Numazu	3:0

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