Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 33

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday

Location: Estádio Nacional do Jamor (Lisbon - Oeiras)

Referee: Nogueira M. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	BSAD		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.4	3.75
	1.85	3.4	3.5
	2.05	3.45	3.1
	1.94	3.83	3.85
	1.88	3.3	3.6
	1.93	3.58	3.6
	1.91	3.5	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.43)	3.49 ↑ (3.25)	3.55 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

BSAD
47.9%

Draw
26.2%

Oliveirense
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

28.7%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.3%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

BSAD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in BSAD's performance.

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Oliveirense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for BSAD than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with BSAD that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oliveirense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	13.3%	46.7%

BSAD - Oliveirense Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. BSAD will win (votes: 6 - 40%). Oliveirense will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Oliveirense: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation) and 10).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Oliveirense could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

BSAD will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches BSAD won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-6.

Including matches at home between the teams BSAD won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- BSAD
Portuguese Liga 2
13.05.23	BSAD - Mafra	2:2 ✺
05.05.23	Leixões - BSAD	0:2 ✺
30.04.23	BSAD - Covilhã	0:1 ✺
23.04.23	Estrela da Amadora - BSAD	2:0 ✺
15.04.23	BSAD - Académico de Viseu	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 TWLLT
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
15.05.23	Oliveirense - Torreense	3:1 ✺
06.05.23	Covilhã - Oliveirense	2:1 ✺
28.04.23	Oliveirense - Estrela da Amadora	1:2 ✺
22.04.23	Académico de Viseu - Oliveirense	1:4 ✺
14.04.23	Oliveirense - Farense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
15.01.23	Oliveirense - BSAD	2:1
Portuguese League Cup
28.07.18	BSAD - Oliveirense	3:1
Portuguese Liga 2
24.04.13	BSAD - Oliveirense	0:2
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.12	BSAD - Oliveirense	1:1

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