Match Info

Chance Liga - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Mestsky stadion v Ostrave-Vitkovicich (Ostrava)

Referee: Nehasil L. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo


	Baník Ostrava		Sparta Prague

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.9	1.65	Watch
	4.35	3.9	1.68
	4.85	4.05	1.67
	30.00	16.65	1.00	Watch
	4.73	3.94	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	9.74 ↑ (4.06)	6.49 ↑ (3.9)	1.54 ↓ (1.79)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baník Ostrava
11.3%

Draw
17%

Sparta Prague
71.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

24.2%

52.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.9%

23.9%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baník Ostrava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Baník Ostrava's form might have worsened.

Sparta Prague has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+19.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sparta Prague's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baník Ostrava than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Baník Ostrava, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Prague than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sparta Prague, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.7%	6.7%	86.7%

Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Sparta Prague (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Sparta Prague (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Sparta Prague (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Sparta Prague (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sparta Prague will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sparta Prague will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Sparta Prague (votes: 10 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Holec D. (G) 31. Munksgaard A. 37. Chalus M. 19. Lischka D. (C) 6. Pojezny K. 5. Boula J. 80. Kricfalusi O. 2. Havran M. 8. Frydek Ch. 20. Plavsic S. 29. Pira J.	1. Vindahl P. (G) 16. Uchenna E. 27. Panak F. (C) 25. Sorensen A. 3. Kaderabek P. 26. Vydra P. 6. Kairinen K. 11. Rynes M. 14. Birmancevic V. 9. Rrahmani A. 7. Mercado J.
Substitutes
77. Almasi L. 34. Bewene A. 1. Budinsky V. (G) 95. Holzer D. 15. Kpozo P. 42. Micek J. 55. Musak A. 25. Owusu D. 18. Planka D. 44. Sehic E. 22. Zlatohlavek T.	5. Eneme S. 10. Kuchta J. 36. Kuol G. 20. Mannsverk S. 4. Martinec J. 28. Milla K. 17. Preciado A. 18. Sadilek L. 19. Sevinsky A. 44. Surovcik J. (G) 30. Zeleny J.
Coaches
Hapal P.	Priske B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', Chalus M. 🟨,
14', 0 - 1, Panak F. ⚽, Kairinen K. (A),
26', 0 - 2, Birmancevic V. ⚽, Vydra P. (A),
35', 0 - 3, Mercado J. ⚽, Vydra P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Plavsic S. ↓, Planka D. ↑,
48', Uchenna E. 🟨,
59', Kairinen K. 🟨,
64', Rrahmani A. ↓, Kuchta J. ↑,
71', Uchenna E. ↓, Martinec J. ↑,
71', Kairinen K. ↓, Mannsverk S. ↑,
77', Frydek Ch. ↓, Owusu D. ↑,
77', Munksgaard A. ↓, Bewene A. ↑,
77', Pira J. ↓, Almasi L. ↑,
80', Mercado J. ↓, Kuol G. ↑,
80', Panak F. ↓, Zeleny J. ↑,
89', Boula J. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Chance Liga (Relegation Group: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Chance Liga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Baník Ostrava won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Baník Ostrava may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sparta Prague is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Baník Ostrava: Boula J. (Illness) Kohut M. (Health problems) Kubala F. (Knee Injury) Rusnak M. (Health problems)

There will not play in Sparta Prague: Andersen M. (Injury) Cobbaut E. (Injury) Mannsverk S. (Health problems)

There are questionable in Baník Ostrava: Buchta D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Sparta Prague: Haraslin L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Baník Ostrava won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 21:42. (average 1.1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Baník Ostrava won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baník Ostrava
Czech Cup
24.09.25	Dynamo České Budějovice - Baník Ostrava	2:3 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
21.09.25	Mladá Boleslav - Baník Ostrava	1:1 ✺
17.09.25	Baník Ostrava - Teplice	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Baník Ostrava - Slovan Liberec	0:2 ✺
31.08.25	Sigma Olomouc - Baník Ostrava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTTLL
- AC Sparta Prague
Czech Cup
24.09.25	Slavia Karlovy Vary - Sparta Prague	0:5 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
20.09.25	Sparta Prague - Viktoria Plzeň	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Hradec Králové - Sparta Prague	2:1 ✺
31.08.25	Sparta Prague - Zlín	3:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.25	Riga - Sparta Prague	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
18.05.25	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	3:2
05.04.25	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	1:1
02.11.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:3
14.05.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	2:1
20.04.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	4:3
12.11.23	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	0:1
11.03.23	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	0:3

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