Match Info

Chance Liga - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: epet ARENA (Prague)

Referee: Roucek K. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Slovakia	Voyo


	Sparta Prague		Baník Ostrava

	1	X	2
	1.48	4	6.25	Watch
	1.43	4.55	6.3	Watch
	1.45	4.67	6.81
	1.41	4.81	6.93	Watch
	1.4	4.33	6.5
	1.44	4.5	6.38	Watch
	1.34	4.6	7.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)	4.49 ↑ (4.38)	6.67 ↑ (6.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sparta Prague
65.4%

Draw
20.7%

Baník Ostrava
13.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

21.1%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.5%

20.4%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sparta Prague has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Baník Ostrava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sparta Prague than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baník Ostrava than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Sparta Prague (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Sparta Prague (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.25 - Baník Ostrava (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sparta Prague will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sparta Prague (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Baník Ostrava (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
44. Surovcik J. (G) 26. Vydra P. 19. Sevinsky A. 30. Zeleny J. 3. Kaderabek P. 18. Irving A. 6. Kairinen K. 11. Rynes M. 7. Mercado J. 29. Vojta M. 22. Haraslin L. (C)	23. Jedlicka M. (G) 37. Chalus M. 80. Kricfalusi O. 6. Pojezny K. 34. Bewene A. 18. Planka D. 5. Boula J. (C) 95. Holzer D. 19. Sancl F. 12. Gning A. 15. Jurecka V.
Substitutes
21. Grimaldo J. 61. Kerl Dan. (G) 10. Kuchta J. 36. Kuol G. 4. Martinec J. 27. Panak F. 60. Rodriguez P. (G) 9. Rrahmani A.	77. Almasi L. 9. Buchta D. 1. Budinsky V. (G) 17. Frydrych M. 2. Havran M. 3. Kante H. 16. Moucka M. (G) 55. Musak A. 29. Pira J. 10. Plavsic S. 66. Rusnak M.
Coaches
Priske B.	Smetana O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
4', 1 - 0, Sevinsky A. ⚽, Haraslin L. (A),
16', 1 - 1, Zeleny J. (Own goal),
25', 2 - 1, Haraslin L. ⚽,
41', Chalus M. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Bewene A. ↓, Rusnak M. ↑,
58', Sevinsky A. 🟨,
64', Gning A. ↓, Kante H. ↑,
65', Haraslin L. 🟨,
67', Vojta M. ↓, Kuchta J. ↑,
67', Irving A. ↓, Martinec J. ↑,
67', Mercado J. ↓, Kuol G. ↑,
73', 3 - 1, Vydra P. ⚽, Kuchta J. (A),
74', Sancl F. ↓, Musak A. ↑,
76', Kante H. 🟨,
80', Haraslin L. ↓, Rrahmani A. ↑,
82', Holzer D. ↓, Pira J. ↑,
82', Chalus M. ↓, Buchta D. ↑,
84', Pojezny K. 🟨,
90+1', 3 - 2, Planka D. ⚽, Jurecka V. (A),
90+8', 4 - 2, Zeleny J. ⚽,
90+10', Pojezny K. 🟨,
90+11', 5 - 2, Rrahmani A. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Chance Liga (Championship Group: ) and 14 in the zone Chance Liga (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sparta Prague won 2.

Sparta Prague has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Baník Ostrava has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Sparta Prague has had a series of away games.

In this match, Sparta Prague is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Sparta Prague: Andersen M. (Knee Injury) Cobbaut E. (Injury) Eneme S. (Injury) Mannsverk S. (Yellow Cards) Penxa O. (Knee Injury) Sorensen A. (Injury) Uchenna E. (Health problems)

There will not play in Baník Ostrava: Kubala F. (Knee Injury) Latal D. (Knee Injury) Sinyavskiy V. (Shoulder Injury)

There are questionable in Sparta Prague: Vindahl P. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Baník Ostrava: Ortiz P. (Inactive)

We predict that Sparta Prague will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sparta Prague won 13 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 42:21. (average 2.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sparta Prague won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 27:13. (average 2.5:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Sparta Prague	9	5	0	4	18:12	6	15
12	Ostrava	10	3	1	6	7:18	-11	10

Last Results with these Odds

Sparta Prague - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.31%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AC Sparta Prague
Czech 1 Liga
22.02.26	Viktoria Plzeň - Sparta Prague	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Sparta Prague - Hradec Králové	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Zlín - Sparta Prague	0:3 ✺
31.01.26	Dukla Prague - Sparta Prague	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
22.01.26	Legia Warsaw - Sparta Prague	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 TWWWW
- Baník Ostrava
Czech 1 Liga
22.02.26	Baník Ostrava - Mladá Boleslav	0:0 ✺
15.02.26	Slovan Liberec - Baník Ostrava	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Baník Ostrava - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
01.02.26	Slovácko - Baník Ostrava	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
22.01.26	Widzew Łódź - Baník Ostrava	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
27.09.25	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	0:3
18.05.25	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	3:2
05.04.25	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	1:1
02.11.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	1:3
14.05.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	2:1
20.04.24	Sparta Prague - Baník Ostrava	4:3
12.11.23	Baník Ostrava - Sparta Prague	0:1

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