Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Barakaldo		Cacereño

	1	X	2
	2.55	3	2.55
	2.58	3.05	2.68
	2.67	3.2	2.65
	3.44	1.50	8.45	Watch
	2.64	3	2.65
	2.15	3.1	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.11)	2.81 ↓ (3.13)	3.71 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
37.4%

Draw
35.6%

Cacereño
27%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

30.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barakaldo's form might have worsened.

Cacereño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barakaldo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cacereño than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Barakaldo - Cacereño Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ispizua I. (G) 2. de Jesus B. 4. Dufur U. 18. Arana M. 14. Munoz I. 7. Pedernales I. 6. Naveira U. 21. San Bartolome V. 8. Huidobro J. 11. Perez E. 9. Valino A.	1. Nieves D. (G) 22. Hernandez E. 2. Martinez I. 4. Crespo A. 5. de Diego J. 8. Deco (C) 10. Hyjek J. 11. Sanchidrian R. 18. Sanchis R. 17. Berlanga M. 9. Gomez D.
Substitutes
13. Campos G. (G) 17. de Leon J. 19. Galarza A. 3. Garcia B. 15. Jimenez I. 20. Mandiang S. 5. Molina E. 24. Ropero I. 10. Sabin 22. Torra M.	3. Barrio J. 23. El Goumiri O. 20. Gonzalez C. 16. Gutierrez D. 13. Martinez I. (G) 21. Morales A. 6. Rementeria U. 24. Valdera R. 15. Vicente I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Berlanga M. ⚽,
28', Berlanga M. 🟨,
33', Munoz I. 🟨,
37', Hernandez E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Deco 🟨,
56', San Bartolome V. ↓, Sabin ↑,
56', Munoz I. ↓, Mandiang S. ↑,
60', Berlanga M. ↓, Gonzalez C. ↑,
60', Gomez D. ↓, El Goumiri O. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Sabin ⚽,
69', Deco ↓, Rementeria U. ↑,
72', Valino E. ↓, Galarza L. ↑,
75', Valino A. ↓, de Leon J. ↑,
75', Perez E. ↓, Galarza A. ↑,
85', Naveira U. ↓, Molina E. ↑,
85', Hyjek J. ↓, Gutierrez D. ↑,
90+1', Dufur U. 🟨,

Preview

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Barakaldo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Barakaldo will hold a modest advantage in this match.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
21.09.25	Talavera de la Reina - Barakaldo	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Barakaldo - Arenas Club de Getxo	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Barakaldo - Zamora	1:1 ✺
30.08.25	Mérida AD - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	Barakaldo - Real Unión de Irun	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWTLT
- CP Cacereño
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.09.25	Cacereño - Mérida AD	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Cacereño - Arenteiro	0:2 ✺
06.09.25	Arenas Club de Getxo - Cacereño	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Pontevedra - Cacereño	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.25	CD Extremadura - Cacereño	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLTTW

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