Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campo de Lasesarre (Barakaldo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Pozueta Rodriguez M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Spain	12:00	DAZN Espana, Footballclub


	Barakaldo		Real Avilés

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.4
	1.83	3.30	3.60
	1.98	3.25	3.45
	2.05	3.2	3.99
	1.91	3.54	3.81	Watch
	2.02	2.9	3.95
	2.03	3.43	3.53
	1.95	3.2	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (1.99)	3.27 ↓ (3.34)	3.64 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barakaldo
46.7%

Draw
28.1%

Real Avilés
25.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45.7%

27.2%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.9%

27.3%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barakaldo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Real Avilés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barakaldo than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Avilés than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Barakaldo - Real Avilés Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Barakaldo (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Barakaldo (1.42) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Barakaldo (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Campos G. (G) 5. Muguruza A. 17. Trigueros P. 4. Marotias O. 3. Zoilo A. 26. Ruiz M. 8. Huidobro J. (C) 19. Troncho A. 15. Jimenez I. 11. Mattheus C. 9. Sola X.	1. Raton A. (G) 15. Alday I. 21. Sillero J. 4. Artetxe M. 20. Osky 5. Mayo S. 17. Prendes M. 7. Montes C. 8. Abelenda B. 14. Cayarga B. (C) 9. Santamaria A.
Substitutes
22. Calera S. 2. Camus S. 14. Collado U. 21. Fernandez X. 18. Gomez B. 1. Ispizua I. (G) 27. Mateos E. 20. Okolo 10. Pena A.	23. Carmona A. 6. Doncel P. 24. Franco S. 27. Liduena Alonso D. 2. Mahicas J. 11. Munoz I. 10. Neskes 19. Poquet N. 18. Rodriguez Y. 13. Suarez Coronas Lastra M. (G)
Coaches
de la Sota Aberasturi I.	Yago Iglesias

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
17', Mayo S. 🟨,
21', Alday I. ↓, Rodriguez Y. ↑,
30', 0 - 1, Santamaria A. ⚽, Montes C. (A),
33', Ruiz M. 🟨,
33', 0 - 2, Cayarga B. ⚽, Santamaria A. (A),
43', Rodriguez Y. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
53', 1 - 2, Mattheus C. ⚽,
54', Raton A. 🟨,
55', Mattheus C. ↓, Fernandez X. ↑,
55', Sola X. ↓, Mateos E. ↑,
55', Ruiz M. ↓, Okolo ↑,
59', 1 - 3, Cayarga B. ⚽, Montes C. (A),
63', Mayo S. ↓, Doncel P. ↑,
66', Huidobro J. ↓, Pena A. ↑,
66', Muguruza A. ↓, Camus S. ↑,
71', Cayarga B. ↓, Poquet N. ↑,
71', Abelenda B. ↓, Neskes ↑,
71', Artetxe M. ↓, Carmona A. ↑,
77', 2 - 3, Mateos E. ⚽, Trigueros P. (A),
86', 3 - 3, Fernandez X. ⚽, Troncho A. (A),
89', Pena A. 🟨,
90', Montes C. 🟨,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Barakaldo (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Real Avilés have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Barakaldo carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Barakaldo has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:7 (averaging 1.8:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Barakaldo against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 2:6 goals (averaging 1:3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Real Aviles	9	3	2	4	15:13	2	11
15	Barakaldo	9	2	4	3	8:10	-2	10

Last Results with these Odds

Barakaldo - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 45.67%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Real Avilés - the odds 3.36 are the expected chance of winning is 27.09%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barakaldo CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.26	Ferrol - Barakaldo	1:0 ✺
11.09.26	Barakaldo - CD Extremadura	1:0 ✺
05.09.26	Coria - Barakaldo	4:1 ✺
30.08.26	Barakaldo - Leonesa	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.08.26	Portugalete - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LWLTL
- Real Avilés
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
19.09.26	Coria - Real Avilés	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Real Avilés - Unionistas de Salamanca	3:1 ✺
06.09.26	Athletic Bilbao B - Real Avilés	2:1 ✺
28.08.26	Real Avilés - Pontevedra	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Mosconia - Real Avilés	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
17.05.26	Real Avilés - Barakaldo	1:4
07.12.25	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:2
Club Friendly
17.08.24	Barakaldo - Real Avilés	1:4
Spanish Copa del Rey
10.09.14	Real Avilés - Barakaldo	0:1

Barakaldo - Real Avilés: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide