What is the expert prediction for Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?

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Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, August 30, 2025)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 3

Date: 30 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, StarTimes App, TV5 Monde Africa, TV5 Monde Maghreb-Orient
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD, TV5 Monde Asia, TV5 Monde Pacifique
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 6
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Europe	TV5 Monde Europe
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Israel	5 STARS Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 259
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	ART Sport 4
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Cignal Play
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 3
South-america	TV5 Monde Amerique Latine
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz, TV5 Monde
Venezuela	Disney+


	Toulouse		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	8.5	5.25	1.33	Watch
	8.75	5.25	1.34
	8.7	5.35	1.33
	8.52	5.57	1.35
	40.00	17.88	1.00	Watch
	8.5	4.8	1.33
	9.4	5.64	1.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	13.2 ↑ (8.1)	7.11 ↑ (5.42)	1.29 ↓ (1.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
7.7%

Draw
14.2%

Paris Saint-Germain
78.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.8%

17.6%

70.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11.3%

16.9%

73.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris Saint-Germain's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
2.8%	11.1%	86.1%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +1.25 - Toulouse (2.14) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - PSG (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (31 of 36 users predict this - 86.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 74.81% – 97.41%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Toulouse (votes: 3 - 13%). PSG (votes: 17 - 73.9%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Restes G. (G) 3. McKenzie M. 4. Cresswell C. 2. Nicolaisen R. (C) 19. Sidibe D. 77. Sauer M. 23. Casseres C. 24. Methalie D. 15. Donnum A. 59. Magri F. 10. Gboho Y.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Hakimi A. (C) 6. Zabarnyi I. 4. Beraldo L. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
30. Dominguez A. (G) 31. Edjouma N. 16. Haug K. (G) 11. Hidalgo S. 12. Kamanzi W. 35. Koumbassa S. 39. Saka M. 7. Vignolo J. 45. Vossah A.	21. Hernandez L. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 19. Lee Kang-In 5. Marquinhos 49. Mbaye I. 51. Pacho W. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 4)
7', 0 - 1, Neves J. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
9', 0 - 2, Barcola B. ⚽, Ruiz F. (A),
14', 0 - 3, Neves J. ⚽,
31', 0 - 4, Dembele O. (Pen),
37', 1 - 4, Cresswell C. ⚽,
45+8', Casseres C. (Pen),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Mendes N. ↓, Pacho W. ↑,
46', Vitinha ↓, Zaire-Emery W. ↑,
50', 1 - 5, Dembele O. (Pen),
63', Doue D. ↓, Kvaratskhelia K. ↑,
63', Nicolaisen R. ↓, Kamanzi W. ↑,
63', Sidibe D. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
63', Sauer M. ↓, Vossah A. ↑,
70', Dembele O. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
70', Magri F. ↓, Hidalgo S. ↑,
75', Barcola B. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
78', 1 - 6, Neves J. ⚽,
79', Methalie D. ↓, Koumbassa S. ↑,
82', Donnum A. 🟨,
89', 2 - 6, Gboho Y. ⚽, Donnum A. (A),
90+1', 3 - 6, Vossah A. ⚽, Hidalgo S. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 1.

In recent matches, Toulouse has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Toulouse may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, PSG is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Toulouse: Azizi I. (Knee Injury) Canvot J. (Inactive) Francis A. (Injury) Messali R. (Inactive) Schmidt N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Donnarumma G. (Coach's decision) Soler C. (Inactive) Tenas A. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 11:39. (average 0.6:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulouse won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 3:8. (average 0.4:1).

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Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 70.62%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Toulouse FC
French Ligue 1
24.08.25	Toulouse - Brest	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Nice - Toulouse	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	Toulouse - Sevilla	1:1 ✺
02.08.25	Stuttgart - Toulouse	4:0 ✺
30.07.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Toulouse	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWTLL
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
22.08.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Angers	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Super Cup
13.08.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Tottenham Hotspur	3:2 penalties ✺
FIFA Club World Cup
13.07.25	Chelsea - Paris Saint-Germain	3:0 ✺
09.07.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Real Madrid	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
15.02.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1
22.11.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	3:0
12.05.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	1:3
French Super Cup
03.01.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	2:0
French Ligue 1
19.08.23	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	1:1
04.02.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Toulouse	2:1
31.08.22	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3

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