Match Info

Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: St. James' Park (Newcastle)

Referee: Guida M. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Newcastle United		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	2.6	4	2.38
	2.85	3.75	2.25
	2.68	3.95	2.42
	2.71	4.01	2.44
	2.74	4.03	2.4	Watch
	2.63	3.7	2.38
	2.83	4.1	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↓ (2.8)	3.93 ↓ (3.97)	2.37 ↑ (2.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Newcastle United
35.2%

Draw
24.3%

Barcelona
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

24.2%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

23.9%

42.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Newcastle United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Newcastle United than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18%	12%	70%

Newcastle United - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 100 users predict this event. Newcastle will win (votes: 18 - 18%). Barcelona will win (votes: 70 - 70%). It will Tie (votes: 12 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 61% – 79%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

TQ, OT - Barcelona (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Newcastle (1.75) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Barcelona (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Barcelona (1.82) (votes: 5 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

DNB - Barcelona (1.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Barcelona will win (26 of 32 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 42 Selected Experts predict this event. Newcastle (votes: 3 - 7.1%). Barcelona (votes: 35 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 4 - 9.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ramsdale A. (G) 2. Trippier K. (C) 12. Thiaw M. 33. Burn D. 3. Hall L. 41. Ramsey J. 8. Tonali S. 7. Joelinton 20. Elanga A. 18. Osula W. 11. Barnes H.	13. Garcia J. (G) 4. Araujo R. (C) 5. Cubarsi P. 18. Martin G. 2. Cancelo J. 22. Bernal M. 8. Pedri 10. Lamine Yamal 16. Fermín 11. Raphinha 9. Lewandowski R.
Substitutes
4. Botman S. 10. Gordon A. 58. Harris A. (G) 21. Livramento V. 37. Murphy A. 23. Murphy J. 62. Neave S. 1. Pope N. (G) 26. Ruddy J. (G) 28. Willock J. 9. Wissa Y. 27. Woltemade N.	28. Bardghji R. 17. Casado M. 36. Cortes A. 42. Espart X. 24. Garcia E. 6. Gavi 31. Kochen D. (G) 43. Marques T. 20. Olmo D. 14. Rashford M. 25. Szczesny W. (G) 7. Torres F.
Coaches
Howe E.	Flick H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
34', Tonali S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
67', Trippier K. ↓, Livramento V. ↑,
67', Osula W. ↓, Gordon A. ↑,
67', Elanga A. ↓, Murphy J. ↑,
68', Cancelo J. 🟨,
70', Pedri ↓, Olmo D. ↑,
70', Lewandowski R. ↓, Rashford M. ↑,
73', Bernal M. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
86', 1 - 0, Barnes H. ⚽, Murphy J. (A),
88', Fermín ↓, Torres F. ↑,
88', Araujo R. ↓, Espart X. ↑,
90', Barnes H. ↓, Willock J. ↑,
90+4', Willock J. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, Lamine Yamal (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg.

In recent matches, Newcastle has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Barcelona is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Newcastle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Newcastle has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Newcastle: Bruno Guimaraes (Muscle Injury) Gillespie M. (Inactive) Krafth E. (Knee Injury) Miley L. (Knee Injury) Schar F. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Hamstring Injury) Christensen A. (Knee Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Kounde J. (Hamstring Injury) de Jong F. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Including home match between the teams, Newcastle won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Barcelona: 16.17%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5:1	4	3

Last Results with these Odds

Barcelona - the odds 2.31 are the expected chance of winning is 41.55%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Newcastle United
English FA Cup
07.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester City	1:3 ✺
English Premier League
04.03.26	Newcastle United - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Newcastle United - Everton	2:3 ✺
UEFA Champions League
24.02.26	Newcastle United - Qarabağ Agdam	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
21.02.26	Manchester City - Newcastle United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWLWL
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
07.03.26	Athletic Bilbao - Barcelona	0:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
03.03.26	Barcelona - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.02.26	Barcelona - Villarreal	4:1 ✺
22.02.26	Barcelona - Levante	3:0 ✺
16.02.26	Girona - Barcelona	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2

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