What is the expert prediction for Olympique Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain?

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Olympique Marseille vs Paris Saint-Germain Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Monday, September 22, 2025)

Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille)

Referee: Brisard J. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	DAZN 1, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Sport 2 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 1
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports
Moldova	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Prime, Okko Sport 2, Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 3
Tajikistan	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1 Pass
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	Disney+


	Olympique Marseille		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	4	3.9	1.83	Watch
	3.7	3.95	1.88
	3.95	3.9	1.87
	2.44	3.74	2.59	Watch
	4.25	4.1	1.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.67 ↑ (3.59)	3.92 ↑ (3.9)	2.01 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
26.6%

Draw
24.9%

Paris Saint-Germain
48.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

24.5%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Olympique Marseille have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.6%	93.4%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (votes: 0 - 0%) .

AH +0.75 - PSG (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 4 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +1 - PSG (2.41) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 66.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 4.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - PSG (3.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Marseille (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH 0 - PSG (1.39) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH +1 - PSG (3.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (55 of 58 users predict this - 94.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.13% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (45 of 51 users predict this - 88.24%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 60 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 4 - 6.7%). PSG (votes: 52 - 86.7%). Tie (votes: 4 - 6.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rulli G. (G) 28. Pavard B. 5. Balerdi L. (C) 21. Aguerd N. 22. Weah T. 17. O'Riley M. 23. Hojbjerg P. 33. Emerson 10. Greenwood M. 14. Paixao I. 9. Gouiri A.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 6. Zabarnyi I. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 2. Hakimi A. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 25. Mendes N. 7. Kvaratskhelia K. 9. Ramos G.
Substitutes
97. Aubameyang P. 12. De Lange J. (G) 4. Egan-Riley C. 8. Gomes A. 32. Medina F. 62. Murillo M. 26. Nadir B. 34. Vaz R. 18. Vermeeren A.	4. Beraldo L. 21. Hernandez L. 43. Kamara N. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 24. Mayulu S. 49. Mbaye I. 39. Safonov M. (G)
Coaches
De Zerbi R.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Aguerd N. ⚽,
18', Pavard B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', Weah T. 🟨,
61', Paixao I. ↓, Aubameyang P. ↑,
64', Pacho W. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
73', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Mayulu S. ↑,
78', Weah T. ↓, Murillo M. ↑,
79', Gouiri A. ↓, Nadir B. ↑,
89', Ramos G. ↓, Mbaye I. ↑,
89', Greenwood M. ↓, Vaz R. ↑,
90+1', De Zerbi R. 🟥,
90+5', Hojbjerg P. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 0.

Recent performances by Marseille have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

PSG is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Marseille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, PSG is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Marseille: Traore H. J. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Dembele O. (Thigh Injury) Doue D. (Calf Injury) Neves J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Marseille: Aguerd N. (Head Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 10:45. (average 0.5:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Marseille won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 5:20. (average 0.6:2.2).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Champions League
16.09.25	Real Madrid - Olympique Marseille	2:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
12.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Lorient	4:0 ✺
31.08.25	Lyon - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
23.08.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	5:2 ✺
15.08.25	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LWLWL
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lens	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
22.08.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Angers	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Nantes - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
16.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:1
27.10.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
31.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0
26.02.23	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
Coupe De France
08.02.23	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	2:1
French Ligue 1
16.10.22	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	1:0

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Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide