Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 5

Date: 20 September 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Stade Vélodrome (Marseille) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Afghanistan	23:15	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV
Africa	—	CANAL+ Sport 1, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 2
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 2
Argentina	15:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	22:45	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 1
Asia	—	beIN Arabia, beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Austria	20:45	DAZN 2, DAZN
Azerbaijan	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Belgium	20:45	DAZN 1
Bolivia	14:45	ESPN 2
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	15:45	Xsports
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol, fubo Sports Network
China	02:45	Migu
Colombia	13:45	ESPN 2
Croatia	20:45	Arena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	21:45	Cablenet Sports 2
Czech Republic	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	20:45	TV3 Sport, Viaplay, V Sport Ultra
Ecuador	13:45	ESPN 2
Estonia	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic, Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	21:45	Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium, V Sport Ultra
France	20:45	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Georgia	22:45	Setanta Sports 1
Germany	20:45	DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch
Hong Kong	02:45	beIN Sports 3
Indonesia	01:45	Vidio
Italy	20:45	Ligue 1+
Japan	03:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	Arena Premium 2, ART Sport 3
Kyrgyzstan	00:45	Setanta Sports 1
Lithuania	21:45	Go3 Extra Sports
Mexico	12:45	FOX One
Moldova	21:45	Setanta Sports 1
Netherlands	20:45	Viaplay
Nigeria	19:45	Supersport Maximo 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	20:45	Viaplay
Paraguay	14:45	ESPN 2
Peru	13:45	Disney+, ESPN 2
Poland	20:45	Eleven Sports 3
Romania	21:45	Voyo
Russia	21:45	Okko Prime, Okko Sport
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	20:45	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	20:45	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South Korea	03:45	Coupang Play
Suriname	15:45	SCCN
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Taiwan	02:45	ELTA Sports 3
Tajikistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1, Varzish Sport
Turkey	21:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Digiturk
Turkmenistan	23:45	Setanta Sports 1
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	15:45	Disney+
Usa	14:45	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, beIN Sports XTRA
Uzbekistan	23:45	Futbol TV, Setanta Sports 1
Venezuela	14:45	Disney+, ESPN 2, Inter
International	18:45	OneFootball TV


	Olympique Marseille		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	6.50	5.00	1.42	Watch
	5.75	5.25	1.46
	6.75	5.00	1.38	Watch
	7.10	5.40	1.43
	6.56	5.19	1.46	Watch
	7.05	5.25	1.41
	6.81	5.39	1.46	Watch
	6.20	5.40	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.59 ↑ (5.41)	5.24 ↑ (4.71)	1.43 ↓ (1.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Olympique Marseille
14.6%

Draw
18.3%

Paris Saint-Germain
67.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.4%

20%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

19.7%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Olympique Marseille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Olympique Marseille than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	13.3%	76.7%

Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Marseille will win (votes: 3 - 10%). PSG will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for PSG: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.38) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Marseille (5.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 5.5 - under (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 - PSG (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

New Consensus by Tipsters:

BTTS - PSG & Yes (2.50) (votes: 82%) ⭐ Best Value.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Marseille (votes: 2 - 33.3%). PSG (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. De Lange J. (G) 22. Weah T. (C) 4. Egan-Riley C. 21. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 77. Harit A. 23. Hojbjerg P. 8. Abdelli H. 14. Paixao I. 11. Maupay N. 9. Gouiri A.	39. Safonov M. (G) 33. Zaire-Emery W. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 87. Neves J. 17. Vitinha 8. Ruiz F. 14. Doue D. 10. Dembele O. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
48. Abdallah K. 74. Bezahaf K. 13. Cornelius D. 25. Garcia U. 7. Gomes A. 46. Koum Mbondo A. 43. Mmadi T. 29. Moumbagna F. 92. Vermot T. (G)	11. Akliouche M. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Digne L. 27. Fernandez D. 22. Godts M. 24. Mayulu S. 9. Torres F. 6. Zabarnyi I.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Paixao I. ↓, Gomes A. ↑,
32', Weah T. 🟨,
39', Mendes N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
59', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
63', Harit A. ↓, Abdallah K. ↑,
65', Ruiz F. ↓, Akliouche M. ↑,
66', 0 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Doue D. (A),
72', 1 - 1, Gomes A. ⚽, Gouiri A. (A),
74', 1 - 2, Marquinhos ⚽,
77', Weah T. 🟨,
79', Doue D. ↓, Beraldo L. ↑,
79', Dembele O. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
81', Abdallah K. 🟨,
84', Abdelli H. ↓, Bezahaf K. ↑,
84', Maupay N. ↓, Moumbagna F. ↑,
84', Emerson ↓, Garcia U. ↑,
90', Gomes A. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Marseille won 1.

Marseille is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

PSG has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Marseille may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

PSG holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Marseille: Kondogbia G. (Injury) Nnadi T. (Injury).

Confirmed absences for PSG: Hakimi A. (Thigh Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Marseille has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 16 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:46 (averaging 0.5:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Marseille against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw, and 5 losses, with 3:13 goals (averaging 0.4:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	PSG	8	5	2	1	16:9	7	17
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18:13	5	12

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

PSG: 79.11% Marseille: 0.82%

Last Results with these Odds

Paris Saint-Germain - the odds 1.5 are the expected chance of winning is 62.64%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Marseille
UEFA Europa League
17.09.26	Beşiktaş - Olympique Marseille	4:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
11.09.26	Rennes - Olympique Marseille	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Olympique Marseille - Paris FC	2:3 ✺
30.08.26	Monaco - Olympique Marseille	2:0 ✺
21.08.26	Olympique Marseille - Strasbourg	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
13.09.26	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Slovan Bratislava	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
08.02.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	5:0
French Super Cup
08.01.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:2 penalties
French Ligue 1
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0
16.03.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	3:1
27.10.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
31.03.24	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2
24.09.23	Paris Saint-Germain - Olympique Marseille	4:0

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