Match Info

Motsepe Foundation Championship - Round 27

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Old Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane)


	Baroka		Kruger United

	1	X	2
	3.6	3.35	1.85
	3.66	3.52	1.83
	3.7	3.56	1.85	Watch
	3.5	3.2	1.91
	3.78	3.44	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.65 ↑ (3.3)	3.41 ↑ (2.99)	1.85 ↓ (2.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baroka
24.8%

Draw
26.5%

Kruger United
48.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

30.3%

42.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.8%

29.5%

43.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baroka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Kruger United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Kruger United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baroka than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kruger United than the current prediction. (-5.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kruger United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Baroka - Kruger United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2nd Half (0 - 2)

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Betway Premiership).

Baroka is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Kruger United is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Kruger United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Kruger United is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Baroka won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Baroka - the odds 3.3 are the expected chance of winning is 27.48%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baroka FC
South African First Division
22.04.26	Baroka - Gomora United	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Lerumo Lions - Baroka	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Baroka - Leicesterford City	1:1 ✺
07.04.26	Midlands Wanderers - Baroka	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	Milford - Baroka	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 TLTLL
- Kruger United
South African First Division
22.04.26	Kruger United - Cape Town City	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Kruger United - Midlands Wanderers	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Highbury - Kruger United	1:2 ✺
08.04.26	Kruger United - Lerumo Lions	2:1 ✺
20.03.26	Casric Stars - Kruger United	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

South African First Division
24.01.26	Kruger United - Baroka	1:1
11.03.25	Kruger United - Baroka	2:0

Baroka - Kruger United: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide