Match Info

Motsepe Foundation Championship - Round 30

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Old Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane)


	Baroka		Upington City

	1	X	2
	3.5	3	1.95
	2.88	3.15	2.25
	2.79	3.44	2.25
	2.82	3.41	2.25	Watch
	2.89	3.18	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↓ (3.47)	3.24 ↑ (3.15)	2.19 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Baroka
30.5%

Draw
28.1%

Upington City
41.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

29%

44.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.6%

25%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Baroka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Upington City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Baroka than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Upington City than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Baroka - Upington City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Baroka is Relegated to

Baroka is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Upington City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Upington City is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Baroka won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Baroka won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Upington City	5	2	2	1	9:8	1	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Baroka FC
South African First Division
10.05.26	Cape Town City - Baroka	1:0 ✺
01.05.26	Casric Stars - Baroka	2:0 ✺
26.04.26	Baroka - Kruger United	0:3 ✺
22.04.26	Baroka - Gomora United	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Lerumo Lions - Baroka	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLTL
- Upington City FC
South African First Division
10.05.26	Upington City - Casric Stars	0:2 ✺
02.05.26	Hungry Lions - Upington City	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Upington City - University of Pretoria	2:2 ✺
21.04.26	Midlands Wanderers - Upington City	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Milford - Upington City	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

South African First Division
28.10.25	Upington City - Baroka	3:0
23.04.25	Baroka - Upington City	1:1
30.04.24	Upington City - Baroka	0:1
04.10.23	Baroka - Upington City	1:1

Baroka - Upington City: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide