Match Info

Date: 26 July 2022, Tuesday

Location: Claudio Fabian Tapia (Barracas)

Referee: Balino J. (Arg)


	Barracas Central		Patronato Parana

	1	X	2
	3	3.2	2.5
	2.87	3.1	2.45
	2.88	2.95	2.6
	2.9	3.1	2.43
	3.03	3.14	2.6
	2.93	3.22	2.52	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.94 ↑ (2.27)	3.12 ↑ (3.1)	2.52 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barracas Central
32.2%

Draw
30.3%

Patronato Parana
37.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

30.2%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.8%

32.1%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barracas Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barracas Central's form might have worsened.

Patronato Parana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Patronato Parana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barracas Central than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barracas Central, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Patronato Parana than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Patronato Parana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.9%	46.5%	32.6%

Barracas Central - Patronato Parana Predictions

Users Predictions: 43 users predict this event. Barracas Central will win (votes: 9 - 20.9%). Patronato will win (votes: 14 - 32.6%). It will Tie (votes: 20 - 46.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 31.6% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Super game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 22 and 12).

Barracas Central has the most likely position - 27 (11.17%), has project points - 29, has currently - 9, has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Patronato has the most likely position - 23 (5.99%), has project points - 33, has currently - 14, has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has small quality 29, very small importance 1, small match rating 15. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Recent matches Barracas Central is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Patronato is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Barracas Central could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

There will not play in Barracas Central: Castro F. (Injury) Martinez E. D. (Injury)

There will not play in Patronato: Pardo M. G. (Injury) Vazquez F. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barracas Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.07.22	Estudiantes La Plata - Barracas Central	3:1 ✺
16.07.22	Barracas Central - Argentinos Juniors	1:3 ✺
Copa Argentina
13.07.22	Barracas Central - River Plate	0:3 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
09.07.22	Talleres de Córdoba - Barracas Central	0:2 ✺
03.07.22	Barracas Central - San Lorenzo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LLLWW
- Patronato Parana
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.07.22	Patronato Parana - Tigre	1:0 ✺
14.07.22	Central Córdoba - Patronato Parana	1:3 ✺
09.07.22	Patronato Parana - Arsenal Sarandí	0:1 ✺
04.07.22	Newells Old Boys - Patronato Parana	2:2 ✺
27.06.22	Patronato Parana - Independiente	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.9 WWLTW

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