Match Info

Torneo Betano - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 28 April 2025, Monday

Location: Claudio Fabian Tapia (Barracas)

Referee: Mastrangelo H. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN Premium
China	K-Ball
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Barracas Central		Unión Santa Fe

	1	X	2
	3	3	2.55	Watch
	2.7	2.87	2.8
	2.9	2.85	2.7
	3.18	2.84	2.73
	3.08	2.78	2.74
	2.1	3	3.75
	2.99	2.85	2.7	Watch
	2.9	2.85	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.86 ↑ (2.34)	2.88 ↓ (3.09)	2.83 ↓ (3.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barracas Central
33.3%

Draw
33.1%

Unión Santa Fe
33.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

30.6%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

31.8%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barracas Central has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barracas Central's form might have worsened.

Unión Santa Fe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barracas Central than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barracas Central, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Santa Fe than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Santa Fe, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	10%	76.7%

Barracas Central - Unión Santa Fe Predictions

Users Predictions: 30 users predict this event. Barracas Central will win (votes: 4 - 13.3%). Unión will win (votes: 23 - 76.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Unión: 61.6% – 91.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Unión (2.09) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Unión Santa Fe will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Ledesma M. (G) 33. Mater F. 14. Jappert K. 32. Tobio F. 15. Rak Y. 6. Insua R. 5. Miloc D. 23. Tapia I. (C) 11. Ruiz J. 20. Candia J. 10. Barrios N.	25. Cardozo T. (G) 35. Vargas L. 34. Pardo F. 16. Martinez M. 3. Corvalan C. (C) 20. Palacios J. 8. Ham E. 24. Profini R. 11. Del Blanco M. 31. Estigarribia M. 18. Gamba L.
Substitutes
13. Barrios R. 7. Bruera F. 2. Capraro N. 52. Coronel M. G. 31. Demartini N. 16. Guaraz I. A. 30. Mino M. (G) 9. Morales G. 19. Porra T. 79. Puig M. 8. Rosane S.	19. Angulo J. 17. Canete E. 29. Diaz D. 9. Domina J. 13. Fascendini V. 7. Fragapane F. 22. Gerometta F. 32. Paz N. 14. Pitton B. 28. Pitton M. 1. Tagliamonte M. (G) 10. Verde L.
Coaches
Insua R.	Vazzoler N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
29', Corvalan C. 🟨,
33', 0 - 1, Palacios J. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Candia J. ⚽, Rak Y. (A),
45+2', Candia J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Barrios N. ↓, Morales G. ↑,
46', Corvalan C. ↓, Pitton B. ↑,
54', Pitton B. 🟨,
59', Ham E. ↓, Canete E. ↑,
60', Gamba L. ↓, Domina J. ↑,
74', Tapia I. ↓, Rosane S. ↑,
74', Candia J. ↓, Bruera F. ↑,
74', Palacios J. ↓, Verde L. ↑,
77', Profini R. 🟨,
79', Estigarribia M. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
79', Miloc D. ↓, Porra T. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Bruera F. ⚽,
88', Ruiz J. ↓, Barrios R. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 13).

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Barracas Central could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Barracas Central will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Barracas Central: Duarte M. (Inactive) Irazoque A. (Knee Injury) Kruger F. (Knee Injury)

Last 4 head-to-head matches Barracas Central won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 3:5 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Barracas Central won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 2:3 (average 1:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Unión Santa Fe - the odds 3.26 are the expected chance of winning is 29.01%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barracas Central
Argentinian Liga Profesional
22.04.25	Argentinos Juniors - Barracas Central	3:0 ✺
Copa Argentina
17.04.25	Barracas Central - Defensores de Belgrano	0:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
12.04.25	Barracas Central - Tigre	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Boca Juniors - Barracas Central	1:0 ✺
27.03.25	Barracas Central - Estudiantes La Plata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LLWLW
- Unión Santa Fe
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Mushuc Runa - Unión Santa Fe	3:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
18.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Newells Old Boys	1:1 ✺
14.04.25	Defensa y Justicia - Unión Santa Fe	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
09.04.25	Palestino - Unión Santa Fe	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
06.04.25	Unión Santa Fe - Central Córdoba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LTTLW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.05.24	Unión Santa Fe - Barracas Central	2:0
13.02.23	Barracas Central - Unión Santa Fe	1:1
15.06.22	Barracas Central - Unión Santa Fe	1:2
Copa Argentina
25.04.19	Unión Santa Fe - Barracas Central	0:1

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