Match Info

League Two - Round 2

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Holker Street (Barrow in Furness)

Referee: Barlow M. (Eng)


	Barrow		Milton Keynes Dons

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.1	2.63
	2.6	3.3	2.55
	2.72	3.05	2.68
	2.79	3.13	2.73
	2.83	2.97	2.59	Watch
	2.62	3.1	2.6
	2.66	3.14	2.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.36)	3.11 ↓ (3.29)	2.63 ↓ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barrow
34.6%

Draw
30%

Milton Keynes Dons
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.7%

28.5%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

27.5%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barrow has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Barrow's form might have worsened.

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barrow than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Barrow, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	37.5%	37.5%

Barrow - Milton Keynes Dons Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Barrow will win (votes: 2 - 25%). MK Dons will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for MK Dons: 4% – 71%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. MK Dons (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stanway W. (G) 16. Foley S. 6. Canavan N. (C) 5. Raglan C. 7. Jackson B. 8. Smith S. 22. Booty R. 11. Newby E. 29. Barkhuizen T. 45. Harper R. 18. Cameron I.	1. MacGillivray C. (G) 2. Jones G. 15. Offord L. 32. Sanders J. 14. Tomlinson J. 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 6. Kelly L. 8. Gilbey A. (C) 11. Mendez-Laing N. 13. Paterson C. 29. Hepburn-Murphy R.
Substitutes
21. Earing J. 20. Fletcher I. 23. Mahoney C. 3. Shipley L. 10. Walker T. 31. Winterbottom B. (G) 27. Worrall D.	18. Collar W. 21. Ekpiteta M. 17. Leko J. 24. Lemonheigh-Evans C. 16. Nemane A. 27. Trueman C. (G) 35. Waller C.
Coaches
Whing A.	Warne P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Mendez-Laing N. 🟨,
29', Thompson-Sommers K. ↓, Collar W. ↑,
35', Jackson B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
56', Jones G. 🟨,
58', Barkhuizen T. 🟨,
59', Hepburn-Murphy R. ↓, Nemane A. ↑,
62', Harper R. ↓, Fletcher I. ↑,
63', Fletcher I. 🟨,
73', 0 - 1, Gilbey A. ⚽,
77', Newby E. ↓, Walker T. ↑,
78', Mendez-Laing N. ↓, Ekpiteta M. ↑,
79', Kelly L. ↓, Lemonheigh-Evans C. ↑,
81', 0 - 2, Paterson C. ⚽,
87', Smith S. ↓, Earing J. ↑,

Preview

Recent performances by Barrow have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

MK Dons has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Barrow: Adu Poku M. (Inactive)

There will not play in MK Dons: Crowley D. (Inactive) Hogan S. (Injury) Maguire L. (Inactive) Sherring S. (Inactive) Thompson N. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Barrow: Williams M. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Barrow won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Barrow won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Milton Keynes Dons - the odds 2.94 are the expected chance of winning is 31.88%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barrow
English League Two
02.08.25	Chesterfield - Barrow	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Barrow - Rochdale	1:0 ✺
19.07.25	Tamworth - Barrow	0:2 ✺
15.07.25	Barrow - Bolton Wanderers	0:1 ✺
12.07.25	Lancaster City - Barrow	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLW
- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
02.08.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Stevenage Borough - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1 ✺
22.07.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Peterborough United	1:2 ✺
19.07.25	Wealdstone - Milton Keynes Dons	2:0 ✺
19.07.25	Doncaster Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
05.04.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Barrow	0:3
11.02.25	Barrow - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1
03.02.24	Barrow - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
14.10.23	Milton Keynes Dons - Barrow	2:2

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