Match Info

FA Cup - 1/64-finals

Date: 6 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadium MK (Milton Keynes)

Referee: Kennard-Kettle Z. (Eng)


	Milton Keynes Dons		Oldham Athletic

	1	X	2
	1.79	3.8	3.8
	1.78	3.55	4.15
	1.88	3.78	4.13
	1.21	4.99	19.59	Watch
	1.85	3.5	3.9
	1.85	3.6	4.03	Watch
	1.77	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.98)	3.85 ↑ (3.61)	6.23 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Milton Keynes Dons
57.9%

Draw
26%

Oldham Athletic
16.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

25.7%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.7%

26.2%

27%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Milton Keynes Dons has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Milton Keynes Dons's performance.

Oldham Athletic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Oldham Athletic might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Milton Keynes Dons than the current prediction. (-10.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Milton Keynes Dons that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oldham Athletic than the current prediction. (+10.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Oldham Athletic could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. MacGillivray C. (G) 23. Maguire L. 32. Sanders J. 15. Offord L. 2. Jones G. 18. Collar W. 6. Kelly L. 10. Collins A. 14. Tomlinson J. (C) 20. Thompson-Sommers K. 13. Paterson C.	1. Hudson M. (G) 6. Monthe M. 40. Simeu D. 5. Daniels D. 20. Caprice J. 4. Pett T. (C) 8. Woods R. 11. Stevens J. 24. Robson J. 28. Mellon M. 15. Drummond K.
Substitutes
46. Burke J. 21. Ekpiteta M. 8. Gilbey A. 22. Mellish J. 11. Mendez-Laing N. 16. Nemane A. 34. Tripp C. 27. Trueman C. (G) 35. Waller C.	7. Charsley H. 31. Donaghy T. (G) 9. Fondop-Talum M. 19. Hannant L. 18. Morris K. 2. Ogle R. 26. Payne K. 17. Quigley J. 16. Sutton W.
Coaches
Warne P.	Mellon M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Robson J. 🟨,
42', 1 - 0, Tomlinson J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Sanders J. ↓, Ekpiteta M. ↑,
57', 2 - 0, Kelly L. ⚽,
60', Jones G. ↓, Nemane A. ↑,
60', Paterson C. ↓, Mendez-Laing N. ↑,
60', Collins A. ↓, Gilbey A. ↑,
61', Pett T. ↓, Payne K. ↑,
61', Simeu D. ↓, Sutton W. ↑,
62', Stevens J. ↓, Hannant L. ↑,
62', Drummond K. ↓, Quigley J. ↑,
70', Monthe M. 🟨,
71', Mellon M. ↓, Fondop-Talum M. ↑,
76', 2 - 1, Hannant L. (Penalty Awarded),
78', Maguire L. ↓, Mellish J. ↑,
84', Fondop-Talum M. 🟨,
84', Mellish J. 🟨,
90+2', 3 - 1, Mendez-Laing N. ⚽, Kelly L. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, MK Dons is considered a favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, MK Dons won 10 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 26:13. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, MK Dons won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:6. (average 2:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Milton Keynes Dons
English League Two
29.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
22.11.25	Tranmere Rovers - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
15.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Salford City	2:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Swindon Town	0:4 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Barnet - Milton Keynes Dons	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTWLT
- Oldham Athletic
English League Two
29.11.25	Accrington Stanley - Oldham Athletic	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Newport County	3:0 ✺
15.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
11.11.25	Oldham Athletic - Bolton Wanderers	2:6 ✺
English League Two
08.11.25	Harrogate Town - Oldham Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.08.25	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	0:0
29.01.19	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	2:1
04.08.18	Oldham Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	1:2
English League One
13.02.18	Oldham Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	1:0
21.10.17	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	4:4
07.02.17	Milton Keynes Dons - Oldham Athletic	1:0
01.10.16	Oldham Athletic - Milton Keynes Dons	0:2

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