Match Info

NWSL Women

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: PayPal Park (San Jose, CA) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Billeter A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	18:00	Disney+
Australia	08:00	Stan Sport
Brazil	18:00	Disney+
Canada	17:00	TSN 2
Chile	18:00	Disney+
Colombia	16:00	Disney+
Mexico	15:00	Disney+, ESPN 2
North Central America	—	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	16:00	Disney+
United Kingdom	22:00	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Uruguay	18:00	Disney+
Usa	17:00	CBS, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN USA
Venezuela	17:00	Disney+
International	21:00	NWSL+


	Bay FC		Portland Thorns

	1	X	2
	2.50	3.70	2.20
	2.45	3.55	2.3
	2.55	4.18	2.26
	2.53	4.19	2.29	Watch
	2.4	4.05	2.2
	2.46	3.64	2.27	Watch
	2.5	3.7	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.48 ↓ (2.5)	3.86 ↑ (3.79)	2.26 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bay FC
36.5%

Draw
23.5%

Portland Thorns
40%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

23.7%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

23.4%

39.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bay FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Portland Thorns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Bay FC aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portland Thorns than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Bay FC - Portland Thorns Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Silkowitz J. (G) 16. Collins S. (C) 2. Gilchrist H. 18. Anderson J. 31. Nighswonger J. 30. Holzheier A. 41. Bebar H. 47. Fuller K. 19. Bailey D. 23. Conti C. 5. Lema K.	18. Arnold M. (G) 2. Reyes R. 4. Calzada C. 24. Perry J. 25. Vignola M. 20. Nijstad N. 21. Fleming J. (C) 66. Turner R. 19. Tordin P. 7. Hanks C. 22. Weaver M.
Substitutes
32. Allen E. (G) 21. Cometti A. 10. Girelli C. 11. Hubly K. 4. Menges E. 1. Miller C. (G) 24. Moreau M.	6. Bogere C. 27. Dufour J. 15. Harvey S. 16. Hiatt S. 41. Lyles R. 29. Mckenzie M. 35. Messner M. (G) 23. Muller M. 5. Obaze I.
Coaches
Coates E.	Vilahamn R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Weaver M. ⚽, Nijstad N. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Conti C. ⚽, Lema K. (A),
45', Conti C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Anderson J. ↓, Cometti A. ↑,
56', Vignola M. ↓, Muller M. ↑,
56', Weaver M. ↓, Harvey S. ↑,
64', Holzheier A. ↓, Girelli C. ↑,
67', 2 - 1, Fuller K. ⚽, Lema K. (A),
72', Calzada C. ↓, Obaze I. ↑,
72', Nijstad N. ↓, Bogere C. ↑,
74', Reyes R. 🟨,
81', Turner R. ↓, Dufour J. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Hanks C. ⚽,
90', Collins S. ↓, Moreau M. ↑,
90', Conti C. ↓, Hubly K. ↑,

Preview

A determined lower-tier side seeks an essential result against mid-table opposition (ranked 14th and 7th in the Promotion - NWSL Women Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Bay is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Portland Thorns have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Recently, Portland Thorns has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Bay has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:8 (averaging 1.4:1.6 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bay against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:3 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Portland Thorns W	29	13	8	8	48:41	7	47
14	Bay FC W	29	7	6	16	30:46	-16	27

Last Results with these Odds

Bay FC - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bay FC
NWSL
03.10.26	Kansas City Current - Bay FC	5:1 ✺
27.09.26	Bay FC - Orlando Pride	1:3 ✺
20.09.26	Bay FC - Racing Louisville	2:0 ✺
16.09.26	Denver Summit - Bay FC	2:2 ✺
12.09.26	Seattle Reign - Bay FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LLWTL
- Portland Thorns
NWSL
03.10.26	Portland Thorns - Boston Legacy	2:4 ✺
26.09.26	Portland Thorns - Houston Dash	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Orlando Pride - Portland Thorns	1:4 ✺
13.09.26	Portland Thorns - Chicago Stars	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Portland Thorns - Washington Spirit	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWTL

Latest Head to Head

NWSL
20.05.26	Portland Thorns - Bay FC	2:0
04.10.25	Portland Thorns - Bay FC	2:1
07.06.25	Bay FC - Portland Thorns	1:0
30.08.24	Portland Thorns - Bay FC	1:3
01.05.24	Bay FC - Portland Thorns	2:3

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