Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 2

Date: 5 September 2026, Saturday

Location: BayArena (Leverkusen)

Referee: Braun R. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Bayer Leverkusen		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.33	5.25	7.50	Watch
	1.33	5.75	7.75
	1.34	5.10	7.50	Watch
	1.37	5.90	8.13
	1.39	5.55	6.97	Watch
	1.36	5.45	7.55
	1.37	5.68	8.12	Watch
	1.37	5.80	7.60
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.51)	5.56 ↑ (4.66)	7.64 ↑ (5.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bayer Leverkusen
70.3%

Draw
17.2%

Union Berlin
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

20.4%

16.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

19.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bayer Leverkusen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bayer Leverkusen's performance.

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bayer Leverkusen than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.2%	0%	3.8%

Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Bayer Leverkusen will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.75% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bayer Leverkusen will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Flekken M. (G) 4. Quansah J. 2. Medina F. 12. Tapsoba E. 3. Gutierrez M. 24. Garcia A. 6. Fernandez E. 9. Moreira A. 10. Tillman M. 30. Maza I. 14. Schick P.	1. Ronnow F. (G) 18. Juranovic J. 4. Van Den Bosch Z. 2. Uduokhai F. 15. Rothe T. 6. Kemlein A. 20. Aebischer M. 9. Burcu L. 8. Khedira R. (C) 27. Ljubicic M. 29. Latte Lath E.
Substitutes
8. Andrich R. 5. Bade L. 28. Blaswich J. (G) 22. Boniface V. 19. Diaby M. 7. Hofmann J. 35. Kofane C. 17. Lucas 15. Oermann T.	19. Haberer J. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 17. Kohn D. 14. Querfeld L. 31. Raab M. (G) 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T. 24. Skov R. 28. Trimmel C.
Coaches
Martinez C.	Lustrinelli M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
1', 1 - 0, Fernandez E. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
4', Uduokhai F. 🟨,
28', 2 - 0, Medina F. ⚽, Gutierrez M. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
47', Van Den Bosch Z. 🟨,
48', 3 - 0, Schick P. ⚽, Quansah J. (A),
61', Gutierrez M. 🟨,
63', Latte Lath E. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
63', Aebischer M. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
63', Kemlein A. ↓, Haberer J. ↑,
66', 4 - 0, Maza I. ⚽, Schick P. (A),
67', Schick P. ↓, Kofane C. ↑,
67', Tillman M. ↓, Diaby M. ↑,
71', Fernandez E. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
71', Medina F. ↓, Bade L. ↑,
74', Juranovic J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
79', Burcu L. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
83', Gutierrez M. ↓, Lucas ↑,
88', Maza I. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Bayer has had a series of away games.

In this match, Bayer is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Bayer: Culbreath M. (Injury) Doue G. (Injury) Eichhorn K. (Illness) Tella N. (Injury)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Burke O. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Friedrich M. (Inactive) Ilic A. (Illness) Markgraf A. (Knee Injury) Nsoki S. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Bayer: Ben Seghir E. (Thigh Injury) Terrier M. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Union Berlin: Ronnow F. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Bayer won 9 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:11. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Bayer won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 23:5. (average 2.6:0.6).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Bayer Leverkusen: 3.21% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10:5	5	7
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Last Results with these Odds

Bayer Leverkusen - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 62.9%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bayer Leverkusen
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Elversberg - Bayer Leverkusen	3:2 ✺
German DFB Pokal
22.08.26	Wehen Wiesbaden - Bayer Leverkusen	0:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Newcastle United - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2 ✺
12.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Bayer Leverkusen	2:1 ✺
01.08.26	Bayer Leverkusen - Rot-Weiß Essen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWWLW
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
29.08.26	Union Berlin - Eintracht Frankfurt	3:3 ✺
German DFB Pokal
23.08.26	Eintracht Braunschweig - Union Berlin	2:4 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Union Berlin - Ipswich Town	2:4 ✺
02.08.26	Union Berlin - Cagliari	2:2 ✺
01.08.26	Dynamo Dresden - Union Berlin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWLTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.02.26	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:0
04.10.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	2:0
12.04.25	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	0:0
30.11.24	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	1:2
06.04.24	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1
12.11.23	Bayer Leverkusen - Union Berlin	4:0
29.04.23	Union Berlin - Bayer Leverkusen	0:0

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