Match Info

National League North - Round 14

Date: 27 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Bedford Town		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	2.8	3.5	2.15
	2.80	3.40	2.10
	2.85	3.4	2.18
	2.88	3.65	2.22
	2.89	3.68	2.21	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.17
	2.87	3.5	2.12
	2.80	3.40	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.55)	3.5 ↑ (3.3)	2.16 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bedford Town
32%

Draw
25.9%

Hednesford Town
42%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

35%

27%

38%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

27.2%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bedford Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bedford Town than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Bedford Town - Hednesford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
25', (Penalty Awarded),
31', 1 - 0, Williams G. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 9th and 6th in the Promotion - National League North Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

Bedford has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Hednesford shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bedford may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bedford has faced a series of away games on the road.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Bedford has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 1.5:2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bedford against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Bedford	13	7	1	5	17:16	1	22
8	Hednesford	14	6	3	5	23:20	3	21

Last Results with these Odds

Bedford Town - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 34.99%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bedford Town
English National League North
24.10.26	Scarborough Athletic - Bedford Town	1:2 ✺
English FA Cup
20.10.26	Cray Wanderers - Bedford Town	3:2 penalties ✺
17.10.26	Bedford Town - Cray Wanderers	0:0 ✺
English National League North
10.10.26	Chester - Bedford Town	1:0 ✺
English FA Cup
06.10.26	Wingate & Finchley - Bedford Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WLTLW
- Hednesford Town
English National League North
24.10.26	Hednesford Town - Spalding United	2:0 ✺
17.10.26	Hednesford Town - Brackley Town	3:2 ✺
10.10.26	Hereford - Hednesford Town	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Hednesford Town - Radcliffe	4:1 ✺
12.09.26	Hebburn Town - Hednesford Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
07.01.23	Bedford Town - Hednesford Town	1:3
27.08.22	Hednesford Town - Bedford Town	1:2

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