Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL 2 - ROUND 5

Date: 17 September 2023, Sunday

Location: Estádio do Restelo (Lisbon)

Referee: Teixeira C. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV+


	Belenenses		Leiria

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.9	2.15
	3.3	3.25	2.2	Watch
	3.51	3.36	2.22
	3.1	3.1	2.1
	3.3	3.35	2.11
	3.1	3.05	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.26 ↑ (2.7)	3.17 ↑ (3)	2.17 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belenenses
28.3%

Draw
29.1%

Leiria
42.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.1%

29.8%

37.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

28.9%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belenenses has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

Leiria has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Leiria's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belenenses than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Belenenses - Leiria Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Grilo D. (G) 18. Attard C. 13. Serra A. 37. Akas C. 92. Sana 19. Valente D. (C) 25. Carvalho P. 11. Sambu M. 16. Chapi 7. Cle 77. Keita M.	1. Kieszek P. (G) 15. Kaka (C) 2. Ferreira T. 6. Baixinho M. 24. Zie Ouattara 17. Lucho Vega 21. Silva L. 19. Valente A. 10. van der Gaag J. 11. Silva J. 7. Antunes L.
Substitutes
6. Chaby F. 28. Cruz H. 12. Dini F. 48. Manso T. 9. Matos R. 14. Oliveira G. (G) 21. Pina R. 99. Silva M. 10. Tavares M.	25. Amado D. 55. Amoah J. 8. Arsenio 14. Empis P. 47. Oliveira J. (G) 72. Oliveira V. 20. Resende J. 30. Ribeiro S. 22. Valdir
Coaches
Dias B.	Costa V.

Preview

Recent matches Belenenses is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Leiria is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Belenenses won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Belenenses won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Os Belenenses
Portuguese Liga 2
01.09.23	Tondela - Belenenses	0:1 ✺
26.08.23	Belenenses - Mafra	1:1 ✺
20.08.23	Belenenses - Porto B	1:1 ✺
12.08.23	AVS - Belenenses	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.07.23	Estoril Praia - Belenenses	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WTTLL
- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
02.09.23	Leiria - AVS	1:2 ✺
27.08.23	Porto B - Leiria	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Leiria - Benfica B	3:1 ✺
12.08.23	Paços de Ferreira - Leiria	0:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Leiria - Nacional	3:4 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
20.05.23	Leiria - Belenenses	1:0
29.01.23	Belenenses - Leiria	1:2
09.10.22	Leiria - Belenenses	2:4

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