Match Info

PORTUGAL: Taça de Portugal - 1/32-finals

Date: 20 October 2024, Sunday

Location: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa (Leiria)


	Leiria		Nacional

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.4	2
	3.25	3.25	2
	3.4	3.4	2.05
	3.56	3.35	2.1
	3.41	3.26	2.05	Watch
	3.4	3.4	1.95
	3.46	3.46	2.05
	3.4	3.4	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.39 ↑ (2.95)	3.37 ↑ (3.18)	2.03 ↓ (2.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Leiria
27.2%

Draw
27.4%

Nacional
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.1%

28.9%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

26.8%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Leiria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nacional's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Leiria than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Leiria, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Nacional, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Leiria - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Ferreira F. (G) 8. Arsenio 6. Baixinho M. (C) 3. Baro M. 42. D'Avilla D. 99. dos Anjos D. 23. Ferreira T. 7. Ryan Guilherme 52. Sylla H. 10. van der Gaag J. 14. Ze Vitor	1. Encarnacao R. (G) 70. Appiah A. 2. Aurelio J. 19. Baeza M. 8. Bruno Costa 25. Freitas A. 23. Isaac 7. Macedo R. 27. Soumare D. 4. Ulisses 38. Ze Vitor
Substitutes
27. Alisson Santos 25. Amado D. 18. Crystopher 1. Kieszek P. (G) 30. Matheus Alessandro 58. Monteiro D. 9. Munoz J. 5. Rofino V. G. 11. Silva J.	9. Butzke A. 17. Daniel Penha 10. Esteves L. 22. Garcia 15. Laabidi Ch. 37. Lucas Franca (G) 88. Matheus Dias 89. Sousa D. 11. Thomas N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Baixinho M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 🟨,
60', 🟨,
61', 🟨,
64', 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Matheus Dias (Pen),
69', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
73', 🟨,
79', 2 - 1, dos Anjos D. (Pen),
84', 🟨,

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Nacional could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Nacional will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Leiria won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4:7 (average 1.3:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Leiria won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:5 (average 2:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Leiria
Portuguese Liga 2
11.10.24	Leiria - Felgueiras	1:3 ✺
06.10.24	Penafiel - Leiria	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	Leiria - Marítimo	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.24	Camacha - Leiria	0:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
14.09.24	Académico de Viseu - Leiria	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLTWW
- Atletico Nacional
Liga Portugal
29.09.24	Famalicão - Nacional	0:0 ✺
20.09.24	Nacional - Braga	0:3 ✺
15.09.24	Estoril Praia - Nacional	1:0 ✺
01.09.24	Nacional - Farense	2:0 ✺
25.08.24	Arouca - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
30.03.24	Leiria - Nacional	1:1
11.11.23	Nacional - Leiria	2:0
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.23	Leiria - Nacional	3:4 penalties

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