Match Info

Carioca B2 - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished


	Belford Roxo		Barra Mansa

	1	X	2
	1.45	3.85	5.7
	1.47	3.59	7.4	Watch
	1.45	3.95	5.65
	1.42	3.98	6.53
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↓ (1.48)	3.84 ↓ (4.14)	6.32 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Belford Roxo
62.3%

Draw
23.5%

Barra Mansa
14.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.7%

22%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.4%

21.1%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Belford Roxo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Barra Mansa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Belford Roxo than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barra Mansa than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Belford Roxo - Barra Mansa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, ⚽,
36', 2 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
55', 3 - 0, ⚽,
85', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Important points are at stake as a mid-tier club meets a struggling opponent (ranked 6th and 10th).

In recent outings, Belford Roxo has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Barra Mansa is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Barra Mansa may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Belford Roxo holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Belford Roxo has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 4:1.

Specifically in home fixtures for Belford Roxo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 4:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Belford Roxo	10	4	5	1	21:11	10	17
10	Barra Mansa	10	1	4	5	7:15	-8	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Belford Roxo FC
Brazilian Carioca B2
18.10.26	Paduano - Belford Roxo	3:3 ✺
11.10.26	Belford Roxo - Serra Macaense	1:1 ✺
06.10.26	7 de Abril - Belford Roxo	0:2 ✺
01.10.26	Belford Roxo - Santa Cruz RJ	3:0 ✺
20.09.26	Belford Roxo - Cardoso Moreira	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TTWWL
- Barra Mansa FC
Brazilian Carioca B2
18.10.26	Barra Mansa - Serra Macaense	0:1 ✺
12.10.26	Santa Cruz RJ - Barra Mansa	1:0 ✺
05.10.26	Barra Mansa - Cardoso Moreira	0:0 ✺
01.10.26	Rio de Janeiro - Barra Mansa	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Barra Mansa - Búzios	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B2
28.09.25	Belford Roxo - Barra Mansa	4:1

Belford Roxo - Barra Mansa