Match Info

Carioca B2 - Round 9

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Barra Mansa		Serra Macaense

	1	X	2
	3.40	3.35	1.90
	3.47	3.51	1.92	Watch
	3.40	3.40	1.93
	3.62	3.18	1.93
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (3.42)	3.36 ↑ (3.35)	1.92 ↑ (1.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barra Mansa
26%

Draw
26.9%

Serra Macaense
47.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.3%

26.8%

46.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.2%

25.7%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barra Mansa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Serra Macaense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barra Mansa than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serra Macaense than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Barra Mansa - Serra Macaense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
63', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 10th and 5th).

Barra Mansa has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Serra Macaense is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Serra Macaense is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Barra Mansa has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1 (averaging 1:0.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Barra Mansa against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Serra Macaense	10	6	2	2	22:11	11	20
10	Barra Mansa	10	1	4	5	7:15	-8	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Barra Mansa FC
Brazilian Carioca B2
12.10.26	Santa Cruz RJ - Barra Mansa	1:0 ✺
05.10.26	Barra Mansa - Cardoso Moreira	0:0 ✺
01.10.26	Rio de Janeiro - Barra Mansa	2:0 ✺
28.09.26	Barra Mansa - Búzios	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Paduano - Barra Mansa	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LTLWT
- Serra Macaense
Brazilian Carioca B2
11.10.26	Belford Roxo - Serra Macaense	1:1 ✺
05.10.26	Serra Macaense - Santa Cruz RJ	3:0 ✺
01.10.26	Cardoso Moreira - Serra Macaense	2:3 ✺
27.09.26	Serra Macaense - Rio de Janeiro	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Búzios - Serra Macaense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.5 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Carioca B2
05.10.25	Barra Mansa - Serra Macaense	1:1
14.10.24	Serra Macaense - Barra Mansa	0:1

Barra Mansa - Serra Macaense