Match Info

Liga 2 - Round 11

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Jorge Basadre (Tacna)


	Bentín Tacna Heroica		Universidad San Martín

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.3	3.1
	1.75	3.4	4.05
	1.8	3.3	4.18
				Watch
	1.85	3.6	3.8
	1.75	3.4	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.1)	3.4 ↑ (3.17)	3.84 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bentín Tacna Heroica
49.7%

Draw
26.7%

Universidad San Martín
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

28.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.2%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bentín Tacna Heroica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bentín Tacna Heroica's performance.

Universidad San Martín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Universidad San Martín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bentín Tacna Heroica than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bentín Tacna Heroica that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Universidad San Martín than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

Bentín Tacna Heroica - Universidad San Martín Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pretel L. (G)
28. Chavez L.
31. Enciso S.
30. Fajardo J. (C)
29. Garcia J.
27. Kaufman M.
34. Malpartida M.
7. Palomino K.
22. Santillan Vargas E. M.
3. Suarez R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Palomino K. ⚽,
31', Rojas A. 🟨,
32', 🟨,
32', Chumpitaz I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', 2 - 0, Garcia J. ⚽,
58', Matzuda M. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
58', Huacachin D. ↓, Romero J. ↑,
60', Garcia J. 🟨,
61', Chumpitaz I. ↓, Reyes D. ↑,
61', Cornejo S. ↓, Falconi J. ↑,
66', Garcia J. ↓, Leon P. ↑,
69', Minaya D. 🟥,
69', Carranza T. 🟨,
76', Zeta H. ↓, Vargas R. ↑,
79', Suarez R. ↓, Diaz L. ↑,
90+2', Kaufman M. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 6 in the zone Liga 2 (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Tacna Heroica may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Tacna Heroica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bentín Tacna Heroica
Peruvian Liga 2
08.06.25	Unión Comercio - Bentín Tacna Heroica	3:1 ✺
01.06.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Deportivo Coopsol	2:0 ✺
24.05.25	Moquegua - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Comerciantes Belén - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:0 ✺
11.05.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Cantolao	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LWLLW
- Universidad San Martín
Peruvian Liga 2
08.06.25	Universidad San Martín - Comerciantes Belén	0:3 ✺
25.05.25	Universidad San Martín - Cantolao	1:0 ✺
18.05.25	Universidad San Martín - Deportivo Coopsol	3:1 ✺
10.05.25	Santos - Universidad San Martín	2:3 ✺
04.05.25	Moquegua - Universidad San Martín	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
27.04.25	Universidad San Martín - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:1

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