Match Info

Copa del Rey - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio de La Cartuja (Sevilla)

Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Betis		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.6	2.01	Watch
	3.5	3.5	2.05
	3.55	3.7	1.98
	3.61	3.75	2.06
	3.58	3.83	2.04
	3.3	3.4	2.05	Watch
	3.64	3.62	1.99	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (3.27)	3.61 ↓ (3.62)	2.03 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Betis
27.1%

Draw
26.2%

Atlético Madrid
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

26.2%

44.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.7%

26.9%

43.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Betis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Atlético Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Betis than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.2%	25.4%	64.4%

Betis - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Betis will win (votes: 6 - 10.3%). Atlético will win (votes: 37 - 63.8%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 25.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 51.4% – 76.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 34 Selected Experts predict this event. Atlético (votes: 23 - 67.6%). Tie (votes: 11 - 32.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Betis (2.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

TQ, OT - Atlético (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Atlético (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 38 Selected Experts predict this event. Betis (votes: 2 - 5.3%). Atlético (votes: 25 - 65.8%). Tie (votes: 11 - 28.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Adrian (G) 24. Ruibal A. 5. Bartra M. (C) 3. Llorente D. 16. Gomez V. 18. Deossa N. 21. Roca M. 7. Antony 8. Fornals P. 10. Ezzalzouli A. 9. Avila C.	1. Musso J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 8. Barrios P. 6. Koke (C) 10. Baena A. 22. Lookman A. 7. Griezmann A.
Substitutes
6. Altimira S. 11. Bakambu C. 15. Fidalgo A. 23. Firpo J. 52. Garcia P. 25. Lopez P. (G) 4. Natan 40. Ortiz A. 17. Riquelme R. 12. Rodriguez R. 1. Valles A. (G)	11. Almada T. 19. Alvarez J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 2. Gimenez J. M. 23. Gonzalez N. 15. Lenglet C. 24. Le Normand R. 4. Mendoza R. 16. Molina N. 13. Oblak J. (G) 21. Vargas O.
Coaches
Pellegrini M.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', 0 - 1, Hancko D. ⚽, Koke (A),
30', 0 - 2, Simeone G. ⚽, Ruggeri M. (A),
37', 0 - 3, Lookman A. ⚽, Barrios P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Avila C. ↓, Ortiz A. ↑,
46', Bartra M. ↓, Natan ↑,
46', Deossa N. ↓, Fidalgo A. ↑,
50', Barrios P. ↓, Gimenez J. M. ↑,
53', Natan 🟨,
62', 0 - 4, Griezmann A. ⚽, Lookman A. (A),
66', Simeone G. ↓, Molina N. ↑,
67', Baena A. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
67', Llorente M. ↓, Mendoza R. ↑,
73', Antony ↓, Riquelme R. ↑,
74', Fornals P. ↓, Altimira S. ↑,
79', Lookman A. ↓, Vargas O. ↑,
81', Llorente D. 🟨,
83', 0 - 5, Almada T. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Betis won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Atlético may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Atlético could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Betis: Amrabat S. (Ankle Injury) Isco (Ankle Injury) Lo Celso G. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Sorloth A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Betis: Bellerin H. (Muscle Injury) Cucho Hernandez (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Betis won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 14 matches, and goals 10:32. (average 0.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Betis won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.7:1.2).

Outrights of Spanish Copa del Rey for now

Atl. Madrid: 11.13% Betis: 3.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Atlético Madrid - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.9%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Betis
Spanish LaLiga
01.02.26	Betis - Valencia	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Betis - Feyenoord	2:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.01.26	Deportivo Alavés - Betis	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
22.01.26	PAOK - Betis	2:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
17.01.26	Betis - Villarreal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WWLLW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
31.01.26	Levante - Atlético Madrid	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
28.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Bodø Glimt	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
25.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Mallorca	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.01.26	Galatasaray - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TLWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
27.10.25	Betis - Atlético Madrid	0:2
18.05.25	Atlético Madrid - Betis	4:1
27.10.24	Betis - Atlético Madrid	1:0
03.03.24	Atlético Madrid - Betis	2:1
20.08.23	Betis - Atlético Madrid	0:0
02.04.23	Atlético Madrid - Betis	1:0
23.10.22	Betis - Atlético Madrid	1:2

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