Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 7

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Rams Park (Istanbul)

Referee: Kovacs I. (Rou)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	1TV
Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport Football Plus, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
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Uruguay	Disney+
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Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360
World	Sport 24, VIX App


	Galatasaray		Atlético Madrid

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.5	2.05
	3.2	3.8	2.15
	3.3	4	2.04
	3.29	3.78	2.16
	3.2	3.5	2.1
	3.45	3.8	2.1
	3.2	3.75	2.12
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↓ (3.28)	3.73 ↓ (3.92)	2.1 ↑ (2.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Galatasaray
29.5%

Draw
25.4%

Atlético Madrid
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

24.3%

46.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

25.4%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Galatasaray has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Atlético Madrid has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Galatasaray than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Madrid than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	16.9%	67.7%

Galatasaray - Atlético Madrid Predictions

Users Predictions: 63 users predict this event. Galatasaray will win (votes: 10 - 15.9%). Atlético will win (votes: 43 - 68.3%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 15.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Atlético: 56.8% – 79.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

DC - Atlético (1.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Galatasaray (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Atlético Madrid will win (20 of 22 users predict this - 90.91%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 24 Selected Experts predict this event. Galatasaray (votes: 1 - 4.2%). Atlético (votes: 21 - 87.5%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Cakir U. (G) 7. Sallai R. 6. Sanchez D. 42. Bardakci A. (C) 17. Elmali E. 34. Torreira L. 99. Lemina M. 10. Sane L. 11. Akgun Y. 53. Yilmaz B. A. 45. Osimhen V.	13. Oblak J. (G) 14. Llorente M. 18. Pubill M. 17. Hancko D. 3. Ruggeri M. 20. Simeone G. 6. Koke (C) 8. Barrios P. 11. Almada T. 9. Sorloth A. 19. Alvarez J.
Substitutes
23. Ayhan K. 30. Demir Y. 8. Gabriel Sara 20. Gundogan I. 19. Guvenc G. (G) 9. Icardi M. 4. Jakobs I. 64. Kahraman Y. 67. Karasu E. C. 68. Kocak F. 21. Kutucu A. 12. Sen B. (G)	10. Baena A. 29. Belaid R. 5. Cardoso J. 34. Diaz J. 31. Esquivel S. (G) 2. Gimenez J. M. 23. Gonzalez N. 7. Griezmann A. 24. Le Normand R. 37. Luque I. 1. Musso J. (G) 28. Seidu T.
Coaches
Buruk O.	Simeone D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Simeone G. ⚽, Ruggeri M. (A),
20', 1 - 1, Llorente M. (Own goal), Sallai R. (A),
29', Pubill M. 🟨,
29', Osimhen V. 🟨,
41', Almada T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Almada T. ↓, Baena A. ↑,
49', Barrios P. 🟨,
56', Koke ↓, Cardoso J. ↑,
56', Barrios P. ↓, Le Normand R. ↑,
61', Sorloth A. ↓, Griezmann A. ↑,
61', Sallai R. 🟨,
65', Akgun Y. ↓, Gabriel Sara ↑,
67', Simeone G. 🟨,
73', Alvarez J. ↓, Gonzalez N. ↑,
80', Yilmaz B. A. ↓, Jakobs I. ↑,
83', Lemina M. 🟨,
88', Torreira L. ↓, Gundogan I. ↑,

Preview

Now, both teams are in good form.

Galatasaray may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Galatasaray has had a series of home games.

Atlético will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Galatasaray: Baltaci M. (Suspended) Gurpuz G. (Inactive) Karatas K. (Inactive) Singo W. (Muscle Injury) Unyay A. (Injury)

There will not play in Atlético: Lenglet C. (Knee Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Galatasaray won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Galatasaray won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2. (average 0:1).

Outrights of UEFA Champions League for now

Atl. Madrid: 1.83% Galatasaray: 0.55%

Standings

League phase

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
26	Atl. Madrid	1	0	0	1	1:2	-1	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1:3	-2	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Galatasaray
Turkish Super League
17.01.26	Galatasaray - Gaziantep	1:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
13.01.26	Fethiyespor - Galatasaray	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
10.01.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
05.01.26	Galatasaray - Trabzonspor	4:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
21.12.25	Galatasaray - Kasımpaşa	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWLWW
- Atlético Madrid
Spanish LaLiga
18.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Deportivo Alavés	1:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
13.01.26	Deportivo A Coruña - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
Spanish Supercopa
08.01.26	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
04.01.26	Real Sociedad - Atlético Madrid	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Girona - Atlético Madrid	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
25.11.15	Atlético Madrid - Galatasaray	2:0
15.09.15	Galatasaray - Atlético Madrid	0:2
Club Friendly
06.08.14	Galatasaray - Atlético Madrid	0:0

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