Match Info

Super League - Round 23

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Sumpah Pemuda (Bandar Lampung)

Where to Watch on TV:


Indonesia	Indosiar, Vidio


	Bhayangkara		Semen Padang

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.3	3.7
	1.6	3.55	4.95	Watch
	2.17	3.28	3.3
	1.61	3.82	5.33	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.59	3.56	5.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.17)	3.49 ↑ (3.21)	4.58 ↑ (3.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bhayangkara
53.3%

Draw
26.5%

Semen Padang
20.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

28.9%

28.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

28.1%

27.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bhayangkara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bhayangkara's performance.

Semen Padang has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Semen Padang might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bhayangkara than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bhayangkara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Semen Padang than the current prediction. (+7.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Semen Padang could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Bhayangkara - Semen Padang Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Bhayangkara will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Semen Padang will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Bhayangkara (1.75) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Bhayangkara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Savik A. (G) 2. Gede P. 7. Matsumura R. 10. Doumbia B. 3. Leo Silva 15. Damjanovic S. 5. Moises Gaucho 17. Sidibe M. 37. Mbaga P. 23. Subo W. (C) 58. Missa F.	1. Augusto A. (G) 2. Tsouka R. 10. Froese K. (C) 12. Simanjuntak S. 4. Giraldo J. 13. Diego Mauricio 5. Gufron A. 15. Juliansyah F. 21. Diarra B. 17. Maicon Souza 63. Wahyudi R.
Substitutes
11. Andika F. 12. Awan Setho (G) 8. Ginanjar 29. Handika R. (G) 96. Kurnia R. 20. Rizki S. 16. Sadat F. 9. Spasojevic I. 22. Sulistyawan D. 45. Syawal R. 72. Yamamoto S.	25. Afandi Z. 26. Agong W. 89. Bachtiar A. (G) 22. Botan K. 3. Kristiano A. 88. Maulana I. 7. Nakagawa K. 86. Oropa A. 27. Oscario R. (G) . Rian 31. Setiawan R.
Coaches
Munster P.	Antonic D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Diarra B. 🟨,
27', Giraldo J. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Sidibe M. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Diarra B. 🟨,
43', Missa F. 🟨,
45', Tsouka R. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
50', 2 - 0, Matsumura R. (Penalty Awarded),
53', 3 - 0, Sidibe M. ⚽,
56', Maicon Souza ↓, Botan K. ↑,
57', Missa F. ↓, Andika F. ↑,
61', Mbaga P. 🟨,
69', Juliansyah F. ↓, Maulana I. ↑,
69', Tsouka R. ↓, Afandi Z. ↑,
70', Diego Mauricio ↓, Nakagawa K. ↑,
74', 4 - 0, Doumbia B. ⚽, Matsumura R. (A),
75', Doumbia B. ↓, Spasojevic I. ↑,
75', Moises Gaucho ↓, Yamamoto S. ↑,
76', Subo W. ↓, Rizki S. ↑,
79', Mbaga P. ↓, Sulistyawan D. ↑,
81', Simanjuntak S. ↓, Ariansyah R. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bhayangkara won 4.

Bhayangkara is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Semen Padang has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Bhayangkara has had a series of away games.

Bhayangkara is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Bhayangkara won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:11. (average 2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Bhayangkara won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 2.3:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	FC Bhayangkara	3	1	2	0	5:3	2	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bhayangkara FC
Indonesian Super League
20.02.26	Persik Kediri - Bhayangkara	3:4 ✺
14.02.26	Persebaya Surabaya - Bhayangkara	1:2 ✺
07.02.26	Bhayangkara - Borneo Samarinda	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Java United - Bhayangkara	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Persita Tangerang - Bhayangkara	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 28.7 WWLWT
- Semen Padang
Indonesian Super League
20.02.26	Semen Padang - Java United	2:2 ✺
15.02.26	Arema - Semen Padang	3:0 ✺
08.02.26	Semen Padang - Persita Tangerang	1:0 ✺
02.02.26	PSM Makassar - Semen Padang	0:0 ✺
24.01.26	Bali United Pusam - Semen Padang	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 TLWTT

Latest Head to Head

Indonesian Super League
20.10.25	Semen Padang - Bhayangkara	0:1
02.11.19	Bhayangkara - Semen Padang	2:2
17.07.19	Semen Padang - Bhayangkara	2:3
Indonesian President Cup
03.03.19	Bhayangkara - Semen Padang	4:2
Indonesian Super League
15.09.17	Semen Padang - Bhayangkara	1:2
20.05.17	Bhayangkara - Semen Padang	1:0
Indonesian ISC
06.12.16	Bhayangkara - Semen Padang	2:2

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