Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Main - Round 19

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Centenary Stadium (Ta' Qali)

Referee: Tonna G. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Birkirkara		Marsaxlokk

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.15	2.08
	3.35	3.35	2.04
	2.84	3.33	2.3	Watch
	3.25	3.1	2.05
	3.34	3.39	2.06
	3.25	3.1	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.78)	3.24 ↑ (3.12)	2.09 ↓ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birkirkara
28.4%

Draw
28.1%

Marsaxlokk
43.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33%

29.4%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.1%

28.6%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birkirkara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Marsaxlokk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Marsaxlokk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Marsaxlokk than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Birkirkara will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Grech M. (G) 99. Bayo J. 22. Busuttil J. 27. Coppola A. (C) 7. Garzia A. 59. Makoma D. 3. Morello M. 9. Reid K. 41. Roni Santos 6. Viveros S. 50. Vrcic J.	1. Calleja Cremona M. (G) 27. Aguirre L. 10. Arias U. 11. Corbalan J. C. 17. Dodo 4. El Hasni O. 9. Linden R. 25. Minala J. 6. Muscat N. (C) 5. Pepe E. 3. Weder
Substitutes
33. Acheampong G. 1. Cortis S. 30. Cross N. 10. Dimech S. 16. El Hazawi D. (G) 15. Fenech K. 17. Fenech K. 24. Lacunza L. 23. Magri S. 25. Micallef N. 14. Pullicino D.	14. Attard E. 18. Barbara A. 23. Caruana T. 8. Ghio J. 56. Kikushima M. (G) 19. Kirby J. 26. Maniscalco M. 28. Mihana R. 7. Portelli N. 33. Simkus D. 21. Vella J.
Coaches
Festa G.	Potenza V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Busuttil J. ↓, Dimech S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', Minala J. 🟨,
56', Roni Santos 🟨,
58', Makoma D. 🟨,
59', 0 - 1, Dodo ⚽,
71', Linden R. 🟨,
72', Garzia A. 🟨,
73', Dimech S. ↓, Fenech K. ↑,
77', Linden R. ↓, Simkus D. ↑,
78', Coppola A. 🟨,
81', Arias U. 🟨,
87', Bayo J. ↓, Acheampong G. ↑,
89', Dodo ↓, Kirby J. ↑,
90', Arias U. ↓, Attard E. ↑,
90', Muscat N. ↓, Ghio J. ↑,
90+6', Minala J. ↓, Vella J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birkirkara won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Birkirkara won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 9:9. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Birkirkara won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Marsaxlokk	6	3	2	1	11:9	2	11
4	Birkirkara	6	3	1	2	9:4	5	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
25.01.26	Gżira United - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
07.01.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	2:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Birkirkara - Victoria Wanderers	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 LWLLW
- Marsaxlokk FC
Maltese Premier League
25.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Tarxien Rainbows	2:1 ✺
18.01.26	Gżira United - Marsaxlokk	3:0 ✺
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1 ✺
06.01.26	Sliema Wanderers - Marsaxlokk	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.01.26	Floriana - Marsaxlokk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
11.01.26	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	2:1
28.09.25	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0
27.04.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
08.03.25	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	1:1
29.08.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:2
09.03.24	Marsaxlokk - Birkirkara	0:0
04.11.23	Birkirkara - Marsaxlokk	0:2

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