Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Play Out - Round 32

Date: 30 April 2026, Thursday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Referee: Barbara I. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Birkirkara		Mosta

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.4	3.1
	1.28	4.85	8.3
	1.25	5.12	8.15
	1.42	4.76	5.79	Watch
	1.3	4.6	8.5
	1.33	4.96	7.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (2.6)	4.62 ↑ (3.38)	6.95 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Birkirkara
66%

Draw
20.4%

Mosta
13.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

27.2%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

26.5%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birkirkara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+30.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Birkirkara's performance.

Mosta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mosta might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (-31.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Birkirkara that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (+24.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mosta could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	12.5%	0%

Birkirkara - Mosta Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Birkirkara will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birkirkara: 64.6% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Birkirkara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Birkirkara (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Birkirkara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martinez M. (G) 33. Acheampong G. 27. Coppola A. (C) 30. Cross N. 77. Garzia A. 24. Lacunza L. 2. Lopez F. 11. Macula 59. Makoma D. 9. Reid K. 7. Sasere F.	99. Farrugia J. (G) 21. Agius (C) 3. Bolanos M. 5. Cachia S. 20. Caruana R. 15. Eikwu-Ojo S. 33. Farrugia B. 23. Kozic A. 94. Vassallo S. 31. Willian 42. Zibo S.
Substitutes
99. Bayo J. 22. Busuttil J. 16. Cortis S. (G) 8. Delicata L. 10. Dimech S. 17. Fenech K. 21. Fenech K. 19. Grech M. (G) 14. Pullicino D. 41. Roni Santos 50. Vrcic J.	2. Cauchi Z. 6. Costa G. 9. Diamanka C. 97. Eke C. 18. Farrugia A. 4. Farrugia K. 19. Galea M. 13. Luke U. 1. Ngoubi Demba A. (G) 8. Perkins L. 30. Zammit T.
Coaches
Zammit P.	Grech J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, Sasere F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Zibo S. ↓, Farrugia A. ↑,
46', Bolanos M. ↓, Luke U. ↑,
46', Lopez F. ↓, Busuttil J. ↑,
59', Reid K. ↓, Vrcic J. ↑,
60', Macula ↓, Fenech K. ↑,
60', Caruana R. ↓, Diamanka C. ↑,
70', Vassallo S. ↓, Perkins L. ↑,
75', Agius ↓, Cauchi Z. ↑,
76', 1 - 1, Luke U. ⚽,
76', Coppola A. ↓, Roni Santos ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Birkirkara won 4.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Birkirkara has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Birkirkara won 13 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 30:17. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Birkirkara won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:14. (average 1.6:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Birkirkara	6	3	1	2	9:4	5	10
6	Mosta	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
24.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Paola Hibernians - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
14.04.26	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Birkirkara - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.04.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TTLWL
- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
24.04.26	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	2:0 ✺
19.04.26	Mosta - Sliema Wanderers	2:2 ✺
15.04.26	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Mosta	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Mosta - Hamrun Spartans	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.8 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
14.02.26	Mosta - Birkirkara	0:0
21.09.25	Birkirkara - Mosta	2:0
19.04.25	Birkirkara - Mosta	1:0
08.02.25	Birkirkara - Mosta	2:0
29.11.24	Birkirkara - Mosta	2:0
29.09.24	Mosta - Birkirkara	0:1
24.02.24	Mosta - Birkirkara	0:2

Upcoming Matches