Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Play Out - Round 31

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Referee: Tonna G. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Paola Hibernians		Mosta

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.3	3.2
	1.95	3.55	3.15
	1.97	3.6	3.27
	1.99	3.53	3.31	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.3
	1.92	3.62	3.28
	1.81	3.25	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.93 ↓ (1.97)	3.45 ↓ (3.52)	3.23 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paola Hibernians
46.3%

Draw
26%

Mosta
27.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

25.8%

28%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

27.1%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paola Hibernians has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Mosta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paola Hibernians than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (-1%)

Paola Hibernians - Mosta Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Branescu L. (G) 4. Alfred S. 22. Bonnici D. 6. Caruana L. 96. Charleston 27. Cleiton 11. Kristensen B. 9. Miullen 44. Pedrao 5. Shaw K. 14. Xuereb D.	22. Udoh A. (G) 3. Bolanos M. 26. Emmanuel P. 10. Giancarlo 14. Joao Victor 96. Leo Fernandes 29. Oderinde C. 41. Pedro Cacho 7. Portelli N. 74. Vassallo J. 11. Zammit K. II
Substitutes
19. Abela L. 88. Akinbule S. 8. Debattista M. 10. Degabriele J. 13. Diakite 23. Ellul M. 18. Halabaku K. 7. Hernandez R. 70. Lima M. 30. Sacco H. (G) 16. Zammit A.	21. Agius 5. Cachia S. 20. Caruana R. 15. Eikwu-Ojo S. 18. Farrugia A. 33. Farrugia B. 99. Farrugia J. (G) 23. Kozic A. 13. Luke U. 94. Vassallo S. 42. Zibo S.
Coaches
Agius A.	Grech J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', 1 - 0, Miullen ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', 2 - 0, Miullen ⚽,
59', Cleiton 🟨,
59', Bolanos M. 🟨,
64', Xuereb D. 🟨,
64', Bolanos M. ↓, Kozic A. ↑,
66', Caruana L. 🟨,
70', Emmanuel P. ↓, Eikwu-Ojo S. ↑,
76', Vassallo J. ↓, Agius ↑,
78', Caruana L. ↓, Diakite ↑,
80', Miullen 🟨,
84', Miullen ↓, Akinbule S. ↑,
84', Bonnici D. ↓, Halabaku K. ↑,
90+3', Cleiton ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 3.

Hibernians is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Mosta has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Hibernians has had a series of away games.

Hibernians might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 36:18. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Hibernians won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:8. (average 1.7:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mosta	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10
10	Hibernians	6	1	2	3	4:9	-5	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paola Hibernians
Maltese Premier League
18.04.26	Paola Hibernians - Birkirkara	0:0 ✺
14.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Paola Hibernians	3:2 ✺
10.04.26	Sliema Wanderers - Paola Hibernians	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Naxxar Lions - Paola Hibernians	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 TLTLL
- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
19.04.26	Mosta - Sliema Wanderers	2:2 ✺
15.04.26	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Mosta	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Mosta - Hamrun Spartans	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 34.8 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
31.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	1:0
11.01.26	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	0:2
17.09.25	Mosta - Paola Hibernians	2:2
23.02.25	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	2:0
07.12.24	Paola Hibernians - Mosta	3:2
19.10.24	Mosta - Paola Hibernians	1:0
21.04.24	Mosta - Paola Hibernians	3:1

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