Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Play Out - Round 29

Date: 15 April 2026, Wednesday

Location: Tony Bezzina Stadium (Paola)

Referee: Barbara I. (Mlt)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Mosta		Żabbar St. Patrick

	1	X	2
	3.15	3.45	1.98
	3.34	3.4	2.02
	3.31	3.48	2.01	Watch
	3.3	3.1	2
	3.39	3.32	1.99
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↓ (3.35)	3.35 ↓ (3.37)	2 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mosta
27.5%

Draw
27.1%

Żabbar St. Patrick
45.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.4%

27.3%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.7%

26.1%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mosta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Żabbar St. Patrick has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mosta than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Żabbar St. Patrick than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Udoh A. (G) 21. Agius (C) 26. Emmanuel P. 10. Giancarlo 14. Joao Victor 96. Leo Fernandes 29. Oderinde C. 41. Pedro Cacho 7. Portelli N. 74. Vassallo J. 31. Willian	1. Colombo I. (G) 11. Agius N. 9. Cejas P. 8. Figueiredo B. 10. Gambarte B. (C) 21. Jovancic S. 22. Leonardi Z. 19. Majok A. 16. Micallef J. 55. Scicluna K. 28. Vinicius Paiva
Substitutes
3. Bolanos M. 5. Cachia S. 20. Caruana R. 9. Diamanka C. 18. Farrugia A. 33. Farrugia B. 99. Farrugia J. (G) 23. Kozic A. 13. Luke U. 94. Vassallo S. 30. Zammit T.	31. Cassar G. 99. Djalo M. (G) 77. Etim A. 24. Eviparker T. 89. Fontanella M. 91. Grech J. (G) 15. Im Y. W. 20. Micallef L. 18. Mota L. 23. Polidano Z. 30. Scicluna R.
Coaches
Grech J.	Agius G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
41', Leo Fernandes 🟨,
45+1', 1 - 0, Emmanuel P. ⚽,
45+1', Figueiredo B. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
64', Majok A. ↓, Fontanella M. ↑,
73', Agius 🟨,
74', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Im Y. W. ↑,
81', Agius ↓, Farrugia B. ↑,
84', Figueiredo B. ↓, Mota L. ↑,
84', Cejas P. ↓, Scicluna R. ↑,
90+2', 1 - 1, Fontanella M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Giancarlo ↓, Diamanka C. ↑,
90+3', Pedro Cacho ↓, Kozic A. ↑,
90+5', 2 - 1, Kozic A. ⚽,

Preview

Mosta has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Żabbar has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Żabbar has had a series of away games.

Żabbar could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mosta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:10. (average 2.2:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Mosta won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mosta	5	3	1	1	7:5	2	10
9	Zabbar	6	1	2	3	5:9	-4	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mosta FC
Maltese Premier League
11.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Mosta	2:2 ✺
15.03.26	Mosta - Hamrun Spartans	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	5:3 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
03.03.26	Gżira United - Mosta	2:1 ✺
Maltese Premier League
28.02.26	Mosta - Marsaxlokk	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.5 TWLLL
- Żabbar St. Patrick FC
Maltese Premier League
11.04.26	Birkirkara - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	5:3 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.03.26	Birkirkara - Żabbar St. Patrick	2:1 ✺
Maltese Premier League
28.02.26	Gżira United - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
07.03.26	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	5:3
12.12.25	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1
24.10.25	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:1
29.03.25	Żabbar St. Patrick - Mosta	1:2
27.10.24	Mosta - Żabbar St. Patrick	4:2

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